The rubber market is weakening The scene of the "golden nine silver ten" peak season has not yet appeared

On the macro front, on October 12, international crude oil futures closed down, and as of Wednesday of that week, oil prices fell for three consecutive days; On the 13th, the stock market rebounded strongly after the fall, giving a boost to risk assets such as crude oil, international crude oil futures rebounded, and the settlement price of the main contract of U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures was $89.
11 / barrel, an increase of $1.
84 or 2.
11%; The main contract for Brent crude futures settled at $94.
57 a barrel, up $2.
12 or 2.
29 percent
.
Regarding the aftermarket, the U.
S
.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data showed that diesel and heating oil inventories fell sharply, overshadowing the negative disturbance of increased crude oil and gasoline inventories.

On the supply side, the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in October, and the main producing countries continued to increase volume: the September report released by ANRPC around October 8 predicted that global production of tianjiao in September is expected to increase by 3.
7% to 1.
38 million tons, an increase of 5.
1% from the previous month; In 2022, global tianjiao production is expected to increase by 2.
3% year-on-year to 14.
376 million tons, of which Thailand will increase by 0.
9%, Indonesia by 2.
9%, China by 1.
8%, India by 12.
3%, Vietnam by 1.
3%, and Malaysia by 14.
8%.

The price trend of natural rubber weakened, although the price of raw materials in Thailand rose slightly due to the weather, but the sustainability was not strong, and the purchase price of domestic rubber Hainan full latex also fell by about 300 yuan / ton to remain below
10,000 yuan / ton.

In terms of demand, first of all, in terms of tire company operating rate, the downstream weak procurement before the holiday has improved after the holiday, and the tire company operating data has rebounded slightly, the data shows that the starting load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies in the week of September 30 to October 6 was 41.
67%, and the starting load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire companies was 64.
69%, up 23.
02 percentage points from the weekly period and 10.
13 percentage points
higher than the same period last year.
Secondly, in terms of tire production, China's total all-steel tire production in September 2022 was 10.
891 million units, up 12.
54% year-on-year and down 1.
44%
month-on-month.
From January to September 2022, the cumulative output of all-steel tires in China was 91,532,500 units, down 7.
67%
year-on-year.
In September 2022, China's total production of semi-steel tires was 41,863,400 units, up 13.
04% year-on-year and down 0.
14%
month-on-month.
From January to September 2022, the cumulative output of semi-steel tires in China was 363,043,900, down 0.
63% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires was less than last year
.

Overall, the output and import volume of tianjiao continued to increase, the downstream demand was weak to the weakening of rubber prices, and the momentum of mixed rubber follow-up was insufficient; The market reflects that this year's natural rubber business is difficult to do, so far has not shown the scene of the "golden nine silver ten" peak season in previous years, and the recent market has weakened
.