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On Thursday, the main force of rubber RU closed at 14820 (0) yuan / ton, the price of mixed rubber was 12975 yuan / ton (0), and the basis of the main contract was -1045 yuan / ton (+75); The top 20 main long positions 106827(+2242), short positions 155525 (+436), net short positions 48698 (-1806).
NR main closing price of 11625 (+50) yuan / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai standard rubber 1775 (0) US dollars / ton, Malaysian standard rubber 1765 US dollars / ton (0), Indonesian standard rubber 1795 (0) US dollars / ton
.
The basis of the main contract is -329 (-128) yuan / ton
.
As of December 24: total stock on the exchange 228055 (+6705), exchange warehouse receipt 206590 (+14360).
Raw materials: raw film 53.
88 (+0.
66), cup glue 45.
8 (+0.
1), glue 48 (0), tobacco film 56.
8 (-0.
15).
As of December 23, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 63.
86% (+0.
86%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 63.
75% (-0.
25%)
.
The rebound in rubber prices this week was mainly supported
by the resurgence of the epidemic in Yunnan and the expectation of reduced supply from later imports to China.
At present, the fundamentals of rubber have not changed much, and the support mainly comes from the limited increase in the supply side, while the problem of Southeast Asian shipping schedules is difficult to solve in the short term, and the accumulation inflection point of domestic port inventory will take time to appear, so the support of this factor continues to exist
.
The pressure above is mainly from the weakness of downstream demand, and the high level of finished product inventory of domestic downstream tire factories will also make the demand for rubber raw material procurement in the later period not large, coupled with the demand off-season at home and abroad in January, the demand side is weak
.
But the worst of demand has passed, and demand will improve
in the coming years.
At the same time, after the decrease in rainfall in Thailand's main producing areas, the increase in raw material release will also make the domestic import arbitrage window shift downward, so maintain the view
that the rubber price range fluctuates and the center of gravity slowly shifts upward.
