The rising heat of chemicals continues, and the current price of PVC hits a 10-year high

After the Spring Festival this year, the prices of chemical products collectively went up, but the trend began to diverge in mid-to-late March.
Polyolefins entered the adjustment stage, but PVC still maintained a strong trend.
Last week, the current prices of PVC futures all hit a 10-year high.
Market participants remind investors to view market changes rationally.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in response to the soaring domestic chemical raw material prices this year, emphasized that the relevant price increase factors are mostly short-term and sudden, and the prices of bulk commodities do not have the basis for long-term increases.

This round of commodity price increases has an impact on the manufacturing industry, but this impact is generally manageable.
In the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to actively take measures to promote the stabilization of raw material prices.

After the "3P" surge, the trend diverges

In the first quarter, the prices of PVC, PE and PP all rose sharply by 20%, 10% and 9% respectively.

A reporter from the Futures Daily interviewed many market participants and learned that the strong price of PVC futures is mainly related to changes in its own supply and demand and the cost side.
In the past two years, there has been a mismatch in the launch speed of new capacity of calcium carbide and PVC, and there is a supply gap.

"In recent years, due to the elimination of outdated production capacity by environmental protection policies, the speed of calcium carbide production has slowed down significantly.

Baotou, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other places have introduced corresponding regional policies to reduce power consumption, reduce load, limit power, and increase energy consumption.

　　Calcium carbide is an important part of the production cost of PVC, and the soaring price of calcium carbide has led to the continuous rise of PVC production costs.

According to Lin Xiaotao, when the highest price of calcium carbide in Shandong in the first quarter was 5665 yuan/ton, the corresponding PVC production cost was about 9600 yuan/ton; when the highest price of calcium carbide in the first quarter of Inner Mongolia was 5000 yuan/ton, the corresponding PVC production cost was 8550 yuan/ton.

　　Niu Hui, an analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, believes that although the price of calcium carbide has fallen from a high level after mid-to-late March, the price of calcium carbide has begun to stabilize and rebound recently.

Due to the recovery of downstream demand, the supply of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is insufficient, and Ningxia calcium carbide mostly supplies outsourced calcium carbide PVC companies.

　　In addition, the early North American cold current led to the shutdown of about 3.

5 million tons of PVC installations, and the tight international supply led to a surge in PVC exports year-on-year.

　　From the perspective of the domestic market, the pre-holiday petrochemical inventory is strictly controlled, and the pre-holiday inventory is at a low point in recent years.

This year, the country advocates local Chinese New Year.

　　However, as the impact of unexpected events subsided and crude oil prices fell, the contradiction between market supply and demand was gradually exposed.

Although the accumulated stock of petrochemicals during the Spring Festival this year was significantly lower than in previous years, the destocking of petrochemicals after the holiday was also the slowest in recent years, and the inventory in the intermediate circulation links remained high.

　　"From the cost side, with the simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, prices began to fall.
However, the trends of the three varieties began to diverge in mid-March.
Plastics and polypropylene maintained a simultaneous downward trend, but PVC was exceptionally strong.
" Niu Hui said.

　　The current price of PVC reaches a 10-year high

　　Last week, the current price of PVC hit a 10-year high.
Many market participants thought it was reasonable.
Strong fundamentals were the main driving force behind the rise in PVC prices.

　　Huaan Futures analyst Lu Zheyuan told the Futures Daily reporter that since the beginning of this year, PVC prices have risen one after another, mainly due to the impact of the US cold wave that began at the end of February.
The cold wave caused a large number of PVC plants in Texas to shut down due to power problems.
As the main international supplier of PVC sources, the United States has been affected by the cold wave and the suspension of production of many PVC factories has supported the price of PVC in the internationally tight PVC market.

　　"In the second half of last year, the olefin plants in Europe and the United States were not operating normally.
In addition to the cold wave in the United States in February this year, the power equipment was interrupted, the chlor-alkali plant was damaged, and the real estate boom in the United States continued to rise.
The price of PVC in foreign countries continued to rise, and the U.
S.
export price (FAS Houston) ) From 1,450 US dollars/ton to 1,800 US dollars/ton.
Formosa Plastics’ CFR China price rose from 1,160 yuan/ton to 1,510 yuan/ton, equivalent to RMB 11,000-12,000 yuan/ton.
” Lin Xiaotao said, domestic export space opens up , The export volume in the first quarter reached 510,000 tons, exceeding the full-year level of 2019 and approaching the full-year level of 2020.

　　In fact, PVC exports have increased more than expected.
Since August last year, the price gap between the domestic and foreign markets has gradually widened, the export arbitrage window has opened, and the PVC export market situation has improved.

　　"In 2021, the PVC export market is still relatively optimistic, and the number of export orders has increased significantly.
Statistics show that China's cumulative PVC exports in the first quarter were 509,300 tons, which was significantly higher than the same period in the previous year.
Among them, the export volume in March was as high as 229,300 tons.
The overseas epidemic situation has improved, and demand for PVC has recovered rapidly, but the recovery of PVC production has not been sufficient, which has led to a significant increase in foreign trade demand, and the role of PVC export market in stimulating consumption has been greatly enhanced.
" Founder Mid-term Futures analyst Xia Congcong said.

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