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Yesterday, copper prices continued to maintain a high volatility pattern, macro dollar index and long-end US bond yields have shown a downward trend, coupled with the recent gradual rise of crude oil and the positive feedback on inflation, making copper prices easy to rise and fall
at the current stage.
However, the continued high price of copper has also made downstream procurement more cautious, and even showed that downstream enterprises refused to mine or even defaulted, which also made the recent inventory in the traditional peak season of copper actually slightly accumulated
.
However, if the price of the future market can show a certain decline, the downstream procurement will also be stimulated with a high probability, so from the current operational point of view, it is still recommended to go long on the dip
.
On the macro front, global central banks are likely to continue to maintain their current ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the US dollar is expected to remain weak
.
In terms of fundamentals, the CSPT team failed to finalize the floor price of copper concentrate processing fees in the second quarter of 2021, indicating that the market may have certain differences in the future supply of copper concentrate, but it is still difficult to say that it is generous, and on the demand side, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is still very successful, and the new energy and new infrastructure sector will continue to pull copper demand, and the next peak season destocking is likely to form a strong support for copper prices, temporarily maintaining the long-term bullish judgment of copper prices, but if the destocking in the second quarter is not as expected, The rise in copper prices may be weaker
than previously expected.