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Recently, market participants pointed out that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the global demand for polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) and methyl methacrylate (MMA) has slowed down significantly, and it may take two years to return to pre-crisis levels
.
PMMA: Demand may decrease by 13%
PMMA: Demand may decrease by 13%Since the outbreak of the epidemic, PMMA demand has dropped sharply in the first quarter
.
The main application areas of PMMA include construction, automotive and electronics
.
It is estimated that by 2030, global PMMA demand will grow at an annual rate of 2.
4%, and the Asian market will continue to drive global demand growth at a growth rate of 3.
2%
.
MMA: a full recovery in the next two years
MMA: a full recovery in the next two yearsICIS expects a full recovery in MMA demand within two years as social life returns to normal, with a strong forecast of 10% growth in 2021 and another 7% in 2022
.
PMMA is produced by the polymerization of MMA monomers and accounts for about 56% of global MMA demand
.
There are three technical routes for MMA production: acetone cyanohydrin, isobutylene or ethylene raw materials
.
According to the analysis, the Alpha process technology is the most cost-effective
.
There will also be several new MMA programs in the U.
S.
and China over the next 4 years
.
It is expected that two new MMA plants with ethylene raw materials will be put into operation in the United States in 2023-2024, which will make full use of local cheap raw materials
.
In China, several more MMA units will be built using the acetone cyanohydrin technology route, and most of the new capacity will be integrated with large refinery expansion projects
.
But from the current market situation, these projects may be delayed
.
Acetone Phenol: Indirectly Affected
Acetone Phenol: Indirectly AffectedThe acetone cyanohydrin production route of MMA uses acetone as raw material and produces phenol as a by-product, which is the most mature technical route
.
The production of 1 ton of phenol will produce 0.
62 tons of acetone as a by-product
.
Therefore, the global supply and demand of these two products are intertwined
.
In addition to being used in the production of MMA, acetone is also used in the production of bisphenol A (BPA) and solvents such as isopropanol (IPA) and methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK)
.
In 2019, the global demand for acetone reached 7.
4 million tons, of which Asia is the main consumption region, accounting for about 52% of global consumption, and North America and Europe together account for about 42% of global consumption
.
In 2019, the global phenol demand was about 11.
7 million tons, of which Asia accounted for 58%, followed by Europe with 20% and North America with 16%
.
Demand for acetone and phenol has grown at an average annual rate of 3.
4% since 2015, mainly driven by bisphenol A and strong growth in the Asian market
.
Acetone applications in the PMMA and MMA industries are expected to recover within two years, with a growth rate of 9% in 2021 and another 7% in 2022
.
Global acetone and phenol demand is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of 2.
2% through 2030, with Asia remaining the growth driver
.
