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Shanghai aluminum has been running strongly recently, mainly because the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled, the policy release is more favorable, and the macro atmosphere has warmed; From a fundamental point of view, there is no significant increase in short-term supply, and the arrival of aluminum ingot spot market is less, downstream demand is still strong, and liquidity is tight; In terms of inventory, on April 30, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social stock was 1.
204 million tons, and the decline in stocks hit a record high
for two consecutive weeks.
After the holiday, the increase in aluminum ingot inventory was limited, and it is expected to maintain the destocking rhythm
in the short term.
Industry News:
1.
The GCC decided to launch an anti-dumping investigation on the aluminum alloy sheet and strip products imported by the GCC originating in or exported from China, and the thickness of the products involved is greater than 0.
2mm and less than 8mm, which falls under the 76061200 to 76069200 tariff provisions
of the GCC unified tariff rules.
The scope of the case excludes heat-treated, painted and polished aluminum alloy products submitted by Gulf Aluminium Mill in the name of Gulf Aluminium Industries, as well as aluminium alloy products
used in the manufacture of beverages and their lids.
In 2019, China exported 2.
616 million tons
of aluminum strip.
Among them, 117,500 tons were exported to the Gulf countries, accounting for 4.
5%.
It exported 68,700 tons to the United Arab Emirates, 32,000 tons to Saudi Arabia, 07,200 tons to Kuwait, 04,700 tons to Qatar, 03,900 tons to Oman and 844 tons
to Bahrain.
2.
The Iranian Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade restored a total of 146 small-scale mines last year (Iranian calendar, March 2019 to March 2020), screened 2,130 mineralized zones on the basis of the resumption of small-scale mine production, and selected 364 mining projects
.
At present, there are about 4,000 inactive mines in Iran, of which 9% are metal minerals, 21% are precious stones, 51% are building materials, and 19% are other minerals
.
Fundamental changes: 1) Alumina prices continue to rise, and the domestic average price is approaching 2200, but the upside is limited; 2) The profits of the electrolytic aluminum industry were repaired to near the break-even line, and the momentum of enterprises to reduce production was weakened; 3) Before the holiday, the large destocking continued, and the total amount of domestic social treasury fell to around
1.
2 million tons.
Price operation logic: multiple factors such as seasonal warming of demand and alternative consumption of scrap aluminum have driven a large destocking, while collecting and storing information to stimulate the strong operation
of the plate.
However, the expectation of aluminum prices should not be overly optimistic, profit repair suppresses the willingness to reduce production, aluminum ingots have a potential import impact under the high value of Shanghai, the negative impact of external demand may gradually appear in the late second quarter, the long-term fundamentals of aluminum have not changed, and the upside of aluminum prices is limited
.
Operationally, it is recommended that bulls protect profits, bears avoid premature left trading, and wait for inventory and market sentiment inflection points to be clear before entering the market
.
