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Recently, the performance of Shanghai rubber is generally weak, continue to maintain the bottoming out in the context of the low production season, affected by the pre-holiday energy pullback, Shanghai rubber futures price has temporarily broken through the 10,000,000 integer mark, testing its integer support role, due to the fundamental aspects are difficult to give bulls stable support, and the main production area of the low season is nearing the end, the market is temporarily difficult to see the recovery momentum, short-term or still maintain the stability and volatility
below 10,000.
On the macro front, although the Fed's interest rate hike bearish expectations landed, macro risks were temporarily eliminated, but U.
S.
bonds rebounded sharply, and the continued strength of the US dollar indicator still put negative pressure on global commodities, thus suppressing the continued rebound of domestic rubber futures after the holiday
.
At present, the hidden dangers of macro bearish still exist, and the tightening trend of global liquidity is obvious
.
From a fundamental point of view, at present, the domestic production area is cutting, the Southeast Asian production area is close to the Songkang Festival into the end of the low production season, the Vietnamese production area has resumed cutting, and the demand side of the rubber market is weak, the tire start is not strong year-on-year, the terminal automobile production and sales are sluggish year-on-year, new energy vehicle companies have encountered a difficult period of production and delivery, and the domestic inventory has generally maintained a slow recovery trend, but the domestic rubber industry chain is in the stage of low inventory and light loading after all, and the rubber price recovery still needs an opportunity
.
At present, the fundamental supply and demand structure of the rubber market is weak, the supply side ushered in the rubber tapping season, the domestic Yunnan rubber production area has been fully cut, and the Hainan Tianjiao production area will be cut at the end of April and the beginning of May, and will also enter the full tapping period around mid-May, when the domestic glue production will be steadily increased
.
Downstream demand is still weak due to the impact of the domestic epidemic, the consumption expectation of the terminal car market is weak, and the operating rate of the tire industry is also weaker than the same period
of previous years.
In the context of the supply and demand structure of the rubber market is still weak, coupled with the suppression of macro bearish expectations, it is expected that rubber futures will still maintain the pattern
of oscillation and bottoming in the future.
