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In the first half of 2021, affected by the foreign epidemic and extreme weather in the United States, the operating rate of foreign enterprises decreased, foreign demand increased, and the export of domestic PVC and PVC products was expanded, at the same time, affected by the "dual control of energy consumption" policy in Inner Mongolia, the operating load of domestic calcium carbide enterprises declined, the calcium carbide market supply was tight, and some chlor-alkali enterprises reduced production accordingly, coupled with the rise in calcium carbide prices, there was a certain support for PVC prices, pushing up the PVC market, and it is expected that the PVC market will continue to be tightly balanced in the second half of the year.
High oscillation
.
PVC futures were weak and volatile, and the center of gravity of spot quotations in the mainstream market followed the decline
.
The recent pre-sales of upstream enterprises are acceptable, and the pressure on inventory and sales is not large
.
The power curtailment in Inner Mongolia affected the low operating load of calcium carbide, the overall supply of calcium carbide was relatively limited, the price remained stable, the cost pressure of foreign calcium carbide PVC production enterprises was still in a loss state, and the overall operating load of upstream enterprises was still not high
.
There is not much spot in the market, and fundamentals are still supported
.
The cost pressure of downstream enterprises is greater, the resistance to high-priced sources of goods is more obvious, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is weak, and the spot price is falling and trading is light
.
Type 5 calcium carbide, East China mainstream spot exchange 9370-9480 yuan / ton, South China mainstream spot exchange 9410-9480 yuan / ton, Hebei spot exchange 9270-9370 yuan / ton, Shandong spot remittance 9370-9450 yuan / ton
.
At present, the domestic PVC industry is still plagued by the shortage of calcium carbide caused by power rationing, and from PVC to downstream products, production cannot be expanded due to cost pressure
.
As some PVC companies take the initiative to reduce the burden or stop production and maintenance, the downstream may also reduce the amount of purchase just needed with the shortage of raw materials and high costs, and then begin to transmit negative feedback
to the upstream.
When negative feedback accumulates to a certain extent or upstream coal supply returns more than expected, PVC prices may fall
sharply.
