The PVC market is prone to fall and difficult to rise, and it is mainly maintained to operate at a low level of volatility

PVC short-term macro stimulus and disk delivery logic affected the overall trend is strong month-on-month, but the subsequent off-season gradually approaching or causing the accumulation pressure to increase, the price decline risk is accumulating
.
From a fundamental point of view, although PVC social inventory is continuing to destocking slightly, prices slowly rebound, but the future downstream is about to turn into the off-season, with the decline of downstream operating load and the recent continuous recovery of construction, the trend of supply and demand reduction is gradually obvious, and the risk of price downward is forming
.
It is recommended to observe the trend of inventories to monitor signs of weakness downstream, and to be alert to the possibility
of price retracement.

The overall weak fundamentals of PVC have not changed, and imports and overall weak demand continue to suppress
PVC prices.
In view of the fact that the current deliverable source of 01 East China is indeed relatively small, and it is not certain whether the logistics problem in December can be improved, we do not recommend shorting 01 in the context of 01
high position.
However, the continued accumulation pattern in the first half of next year is relatively certain, and it is recommended to sell the PVC05 contract
on the high in the context of this week's irrational price rise.

PVC futures rose sharply due to the risk of a squeeze in the current front-month contract longs, and the situation in the commodity market improved
.
In the medium and long term, the real estate side needs to improve real estate sales, new construction, construction and other links, and the current expectation is to dominate the rebound of disk futures to repair the
basis.
The recent return of supply, the opening of the import window, the commissioning of new production capacity is more concentrated, the overall inventory of the industrial chain is high and demand has entered the traditional seasonal off-season, and the inventory will gradually increase under the situation of oversupply.

In the future, external factors such as the epidemic are still not optimistic, and there is no driving force to pull the market upside in the fundamentals, and the conditions continue to be sluggish, and the market oversupply will continue, so it is estimated that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period
.