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The domestic PVC market continued to decline, the market arrived sufficiently, social inventory rebounded one after another, under the pressure of downward adjustment of upstream sales and pre-sale prices, coupled with the low demand for terminal stocking near the Spring Festival, the market transaction price center of gravity was gradually lowered, and the transaction was light
.
The load of ethylene upstream production enterprises is unstable, the spot supply is tight, and the pre-sale of enterprises to the end of the month, there is no short-term pressure, and the price continues to be stable
.
Asian PVC market India demand positive offer up 10 yuan / ton, Southeast Asia at 860 US dollars / ton, CFR China at 860 US dollars / ton, CFR India at 890 US dollars / ton
.
The US PVC export price rose by $20/mt in January at $780-790/mt FAS Houston, and limited exports continued to support prices
.
Formosa Plastics, Texas, overhauled its 798,000-mt/year plant in February and may extend into early
March.
Westlake Chemical continues to expand its 272,155 mt/year PVC unit in Geisman, Louisiana, but its production release is limited
.
The market believes that supply will remain tight in at least March, and producer prices may continue to be bullish
.
The domestic calcium carbide market has been adjusted upward, and the shipments of production enterprises have been smooth, mainly affected by the recent heavy snowfall in the northern region, and road transportation has been hindered
.
As a result, the downstream arrival volume has decreased, and some enterprises in Henan, Shandong and other enterprises have reduced the PVC load due to the supply of raw materials, and the procurement is active
.
On the supply side, the recent power restrictions in Wuhai and Umeng areas have reduced the overall operating load and reduced supply
.
After New Year's Day, the new high-speed charging standard and the approaching New Year have led to an increase in freight rates and given calcium carbide price support
.
Upstream, shipments to the blue charcoal market in Shaanxi were blocked
.
Snowfall weather has led to fewer vehicles coming downstream, and most of the coking plants are mainly operated to process inventory and load reduction
.
At present, the large material in Shenmu area is 780-800 yuan / ton, the medium material is 700 yuan / ton, the small material is 660 yuan / ton, and the coke surface is 450-460 yuan / ton
.
It is expected that the Spring Festival will be approaching, aggravating the market wait-and-see, rain, snow and frost in the northwest region, affecting the output of goods, the factory price is quite cautious, the downstream procurement is active, it is expected that the overall market before the Spring Festival, regional arrivals are uneven, and some enterprises have increased
.
Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with this year's strict environmental protection inspection, at present, domestic small and medium-sized product enterprises have taken a holiday in advance, and large-scale product enterprises are concentrated on the 15-20 days to stop work
.
In view of the continuous decline of the PVC market and the lack of terminal confidence, most factories do not have a large-scale inventory plan, and a few will slightly increase inventory to avoid the shortage of goods after the
year.
In the past half month, the PVC market has continued to explore the low, the market trading sentiment is poor, and the downstream factories are generally not confident in the market trend after the Spring Festival.
The demand for domestic downstream products enterprises will further shrink before the end of the month, and it is expected that demand will begin to pick up
after the Lantern Festival.
Technically, PVC 2001 oscillations fell this week, the 10-week moving average was broken, and the short-term trend weakened
.
The technical indicator MACD median flattened, the red bar contracted, and KDJ also showed signs of a downward high, sending a short signal, and it is expected that the strength of the later rebound may weaken.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors hold short orders with caution
.
