The prosperity of hydrofluoric acid continues to rise

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market quickly got rid of the four-month decline, and the price climbed rapidly, rising by 650 yuan (ton price, the same below) in a single day on November 1, and set the largest weekly increase of the year with an increase of 6.
42% in the first week of November
.
According to data from business agencies, on November 6, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11128.
57 yuan, close to the high level
of the year.

Industry insiders generally believe that the upstream raw materials have risen sharply, and the cost side is fully supported, which has promoted the success
of the hydrofluoric acid market.
In the future, cost support is still superimposed on the good demand side, and the hydrofluoric acid market is expected to maintain its upward trend
.

Fluorite scarce resource attributes appear

From the perspective of raw materials, the fluorite market fluctuated sharply upward in October, and continued to rise to a new high after reaching a yearly high
in mid-October.
According to business agency data, the monthly increase of the fluorite market in October reached 11.
73%, up 15.
47% year-on-year, and the current average price is 3187.
5 yuan, and the cost of hydrofluoric acid is strongly
supported.

For the rise of the fluorite market, Guosen Securities believes that the combination of resource scarcity, significant growth in export volume and the arrival of the traditional demand season has led to tight supply, which has promoted the rise of the fluorite market
.

In terms of resource supply, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Natural Resources, by the end of 2019, China's fluorite identified mineral resource reserves decreased by 6.
3%, ranking second among all mineral resources, while mines in new exploration have limited increases in fluorite supply
.
In the long run, China will protect the exploitation of fluorite resources, so that its scarcity will gradually appear
.

From the perspective of exports, due to the suspension of mines in Canada and Mexico, foreign fluorine chemical giants are generally out of stock, and China's fluorite exports have increased
significantly.
According to customs data, in the first 9 months of this year, China's total exports of fluorite powder with calcium fluoride content below 97% and above 97% increased by 60.
12% and 397.
32%
respectively over the same period last year.
In September, the total export volume of fluorite increased by 55% month-on-month and 110%
year-on-year.
The sharp increase in exports has exacerbated the tight supply of domestic fluorite to a certain extent
.

In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand, the fourth quarter is the traditional production off-season and demand season of fluorite, and the seasonal shutdown in the north has promoted the strong operation of fluorite prices
.

In the later stage, under the increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, the operating rate of fluorite mining enterprises will remain low, and the increase in export volume will lead to a very tight
supply of fluorite.
It is expected that short-term fluorite prices still have room to rise, which will provide cost support
for the rise in the hydrofluoric acid market.

Tight supply pushes up sulphuric acid prices

Compared with fluorite, the rise of sulfuric acid, another raw material of hydrofluoric acid, is more rapid
.
In October, the monthly price of sulfuric acid increased by 39.
86%, and the current average price is 408 yuan, which also brings certain cost support
to hydrofluoric acid.

Longzhong Information analyst Luo Luyao believes that the inventory of sulfuric acid manufacturers remained low before the National Day holiday, the market trading sentiment was high after the holiday, and the tight supply and demand pushed the price of sulfuric acid to continue to rise
.

From the perspective of supply and demand, since the beginning of October, the operating rate of the domestic sulfuric acid industry has continued to decline
.
Shandong's main manufacturers in East China shut down for maintenance, and supply was reduced; Manufacturers in Ningxia and Xinjiang in the northwest region have also implemented maintenance plans, and the operating rate has decreased
significantly.
In mid-October, there were installations in South China that continued maintenance, and some of the main manufacturers in Fujian and Jiangxi also began maintenance
.
The downstream hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate markets have risen slightly, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of raw materials has increased, thereby promoting the rapid rise
of the sulfuric acid market.

"Recently, the raw material sulfur market has increased in supply, and the price has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of sulfuric acid has not
been supported.
The demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer industry maintained a downward trend, and industries such as titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid just needed to be purchased
.
In terms of supply, some manufacturers in South China and Southwest China plan to overhaul in mid-to-late November, and it is expected that the price of sulfuric acid in some regions will still have room
for low rises.
However, the cold weather in the northern region and the restriction of transportation, the price of sulfuric acid in Shandong, Hebei and other places will continue to have a slight downward risk, while other regions are expected to have limited short-term fluctuations, which can support the cost of hydrofluoric acid
.
Luo Luyao analyzed
.

Supply and demand continue to rise

Looking forward to the future market, Li Zizhuo, an analyst at East Asia Qianhai Securities, believes that upstream cost support is still in place, downstream demand is blooming more, and the hydrofluoric acid market is expected to usher in a situation of both supply and demand
.

From the downstream point of view, the traditional downstream refrigerant industry has entered the peak season of stocking, and the demand is relatively stable
.
2022 is the last year of the baseline period of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the quota battle for China's refrigerant enterprises is about to settle, the industry's profits are gradually returning to normal levels, and it is expected that the demand for hydrofluoric acid for refrigerants will remain stable
in the future.

In terms of demand in emerging fields, under the broad development prospects of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries, the demand for fluoropolymers, fluorine-containing fine chemicals, lithium hexafluorophosphate and other needs has risen rapidly, and production capacity is expected to continue to expand
.
In terms of new energy vehicles, in 2014~2021, the average annual compound growth rate of China's power lithium batteries reached 79.
9%, and a year-on-year increase of 182.
5% in 2021; In terms of photovoltaics, in 2012~2021, the average annual compound growth rate of China's new installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 34.
8%.

In the next few years, the development prospects of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries are broad, new production capacity will continue to be released, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid will be further increased
.

On the whole, due to the strong cost support, coupled with the stable traditional demand and the broad expansion space of emerging demand, the prosperity of the hydrofluoric acid industry is expected to continue to rise
.