The production of natural rubber is gradually shrinking, and Shanghai rubber is under pressure at a high level

News: 1.
In January 2019, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber fell by 11.
2%
year-on-year.
2.
Cooper Tyres' revenue fell 19% in 2018 in preparation
for New Year's tariffs.
3.
In 2018, Japan's natural rubber imports increased by 1.
5%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market for 17 years is 11850 (+100) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11550 (0) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13450 (+100) yuan/ton; Yunnan 17 years full latex 11450 (+50) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 44.
75 (+0.
45) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 47 (+0.
61) THB/kg; field glue 43.
5 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup glue 37 (0) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 11600 (0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11700 (0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: warehouse receipt 417690 tons, +0, still at a high level
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions 86854, -2139; short positions 114500, -2576
.
The short reduction is large, and the net short order is reduced
.

At present, the domestic natural rubber production area has entered the suspension period, and although the Thai production area is still in the rubber tapping period, the output is gradually shrinking
.
The news that Indonesia is preparing to propose a plan to reduce rubber export quotas at the meeting of the India-Malaysia-Thailand three-nation rubber export alliance in Bangkok this week has boosted the Shanghai rubber market, but the actual effect remains to be seen
.

After the holiday, tire factories resumed work one after another, and the operating rate gradually recovered
.
Although China's rubber imports fell year-on-year in January, from the perspective of inventory, exchange inventories and stocks outside the bonded zone continued to increase, and the supply pressure was still obvious
.
Technically, the RU1905 contract price is under pressure on the 12500 line to fall, short-term attention to whether it can stand on the 12300 line, it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.