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Today's Shanghai copper main force opened low and then fluctuated
in a narrow range.
At the end of the day, the main 2207 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 72650, down 180, or 0.
25%.
In terms of the market, yesterday's Shanghai copper spot premium rose back to 150 yuan, spot import losses were still as high as 900 yuan, and far month import losses exceeded 1200 yuan, stimulating refinery exports
.
The direct reason for the excessively low price comparison is that imports are concentrated and the suspension of financing purchases caused by repeated pledges of warehouse receipts has a great
impact on spot transactions.
Overall, downstream consumption has recovered slowly, and a wave of rush in East China ended in late May, and new orders are weak and downstream has no intention of chasing higher
.
In terms of inventories, LME stocks increased slightly by 1,200 tonnes, and small inventory repatriation began in Asia, which may reflect the impact of weaker prices in the last two weeks, with spot premiums flat at US$
5.
At present, the write-off of warehouse receipts has fallen to 25,000 tons, and with the opening of China's export window, the LME reduction may be nearing the end, but the extremely low total inventory still supports prices
.
According to steel union data, bonded stocks on Thursday were 236,000 tons, down 10,000 tons, domestic mainstream consumption stocks were 88,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from last week, and total inventories were suspended
after three consecutive weeks of decline.
However, due to the low price of Shanghai copper, imports may weaken, the current too low premium and price will recover, and the price decline will also re-stimulate downstream replenishment
.
At present, whether it is inflation expectations or industrial inventories, it still does not support the sharp fall in copper prices, and the probability of the price falling into shock again is greater, but it is expected that the rebound of copper prices is also quite limited, under the established path of interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction, the valuation of copper prices has declined, and copper prices in June may show a high and low trend, and the pace of price operation is high and falling
.
