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Shanghai aluminum fell
slightly overnight.
Against the background of the fermentation of the epidemic and the US election, the global political economy is uncertain, and the speaker of the House of Representatives said that whether the stimulus package can be implemented before the election will be an important node
on Tuesday.
At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell by 10,000 tons from last Thursday, domestic consumption remained strong, and customs data showed a slow recovery
in exports.
Under the state of low inventory, the spot premium of aluminum ingots is still above 200 yuan, which continues to pull Shanghai aluminum
.
It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum Back structure will remain for a long time, and the probability of high volatility of the main contract is large, pay attention to the pressure of 10,000 and 5, and sell high and suck low
.
Aluminum ingot inventory data on Thursday showed 719,000 tons, an increase of 04,000 tons from last Friday, and there were signs
of destocking in the middle of the week.
The pace of continuous growth on the domestic supply side accelerated slightly before the holiday, and with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the new production capacity put into operation in the third quarter will release the actual output, and the resumption of production under high profits will follow, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing
.
Following the off-season, domestic demand is facing a situation of low peak season, but this "not strong" situation is relative to the previous high year-on-year growth rate, as far as the domestic demand situation in September is concerned, it still maintains a year-on-year high growth, and at present, from the downstream feedback, orders in October have not increased significantly month-on-month, maintaining a stable state, and it is expected to maintain year-on-year growth
.
In terms of exports, according to customs data, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 426,000 tons, which continued to improve month-on-month and was basically unchanged from the same period last year (430,000 tons).
The current focus of market trading is still on demand growth, and the degree of matching between the two is crucial
as supply growth accelerates and demand grows.
Although in the medium term, the pattern of aluminum supply and demand to excess inhibits aluminum prices, and the inventory returned after the holiday began to accumulate, but the extent of accumulation is acceptable, and the inventory is at an absolute low, before the delivery of this month, aluminum prices have rebounded under the strong drive of spot, focusing on the transaction heat and consumption of the spot market after delivery, and it is expected that short-term aluminum prices will continue to maintain a volatile pattern
.
