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Recently, electrolytic aluminum has continued to fluctuate, showing the characteristics of external strength and internal weakness, the overall pattern is still a large supply pressure in the short term, the cost side is supported, the policy expectation is strong, and the overall sign of
improvement.
While pressure to increase capacity remains, domestic average primary aluminum production fell to 90,500 tonnes (IAI) in February from 95,200 tonnes in January, while spot inventories began to decline and aluminum prices remained strong
amid a weaker overall commodity market.
Shanghai aluminum closed at 13,695 yuan / ton on March 24, down 0.
47%.
Lun aluminum strengthened 1.
07% to $1937/mt
.
In terms of inventory, spot inventory began to decrease, and exchange inventory was still reduced abroad, and increased domestically, but the overall decline was even greater
.
On March 23, according to statistics, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory in the five places was 1.
139 million tons, down 04,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Aluminum stocks in the previous period increased by 10,260 tons to 326597 tons from last week, and LME aluminum stocks decreased by 50,200 tons to 1,945,800 tons
.
In order to promote the function of the futures market, better serve the real economy, and improve the level of delivery management, the Shanghai Futures Exchange Aluminum Standard Contract and the Shanghai Futures Exchange Delivery Rules were revised in the previous issue, and the aluminum ingot weight specification (25KG± 2KG), adjust the contract name (aluminum futures contract), etc.
, effective from March 27
, 2017.
This increases the types of deliverable goods and facilitates corporate hedging, but is expected to have little impact on the market in the short term
.
On the demand side, the EU won the anti-dumping case, which is conducive to export demand
.
The European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade officially announced the results of the investigation into the anti-dumping case against China's aluminum foil, and 4 Chinese enterprises, including Luoyang Wanji Aluminum Processing Co.
, Ltd.
, successfully responded to the lawsuit and obtained the qualification to export aluminum foil directly to EU countries, while enterprises that did not respond or lost the lawsuit will be subject to 30% anti-dumping duty
on the export of aluminum foil to the EU.
At the same time, due to the appropriate ratio and exchange rate, in addition to the increase in normal aluminum exports, many traders have returned to the routine of 2015 and purchased a large number of cast and rolled coil blanks for export to earn tax
rebates.
However, in principle, the export of aluminum semi-finished products such as cast and rolled coil blanks is subject to tariffs rather than tax rebates, but because customs are difficult to distinguish, there are still many exporters who take risks driven
by interests.
According to China Nonferrous Metal Network, due to the sharp rise in coal prices in the past six months, the electricity fee of Guizhou electrolytic aluminum plant will be raised by 7-8 cents per degree to 3 Mao 6 cents in early April, which will increase the cost of Guizhou aluminum enterprises by 900-1200 yuan / ton
.
Although captive power plants account for a relatively large proportion and are not expected to affect the entire industry, the overall grid regulation management may also increase the cost
of electricity.
Alumina prices continue to decline, but due to environmental protection, upstream bauxite supply declines, high-grade bauxite prices rise, and it is expected to support
alumina prices in the later period.
Other auxiliary materials still have room for growth, and the overall cost side is still supported
.
