The price of chemical fertilizers and pesticides in my country rose rapidly in the first half of the year

Recently, the prices of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have continued to run at a high level, and the price increase momentum will be obvious from June 2021
.

At present, affected by factors such as rising raw material prices and tight domestic supply, domestic fertilizer and pesticide prices will remain high

1.
Review of the price situation of chemical fertilizers and pesticides

(1) Review of fertilizer price situation

　(1) Review of fertilizer price situation

In the first half of 2021, the supply and demand trend of the chemical fertilizer agricultural materials market is booming.
The market for chemical fertilizer products such as nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and compound fertilizers continues to improve, and prices are rising significantly, and they have remained at a high level recently
.

Summer fertilizers in domestic agricultural production are mainly high-nitrogen fertilizers.
Affected by rising raw material prices, the prices of nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers continue to rise
.

From January to July of 2021, the average ex-factory price of small particles of urea was 2267 yuan/ton, up 33.

Data source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Data source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Figure 1 2020-2021 China's fertilizer market price trend chart

Figure 1 2020-2021 China's fertilizer market price trend chart

Looking at the situation in previous years, there is usually less demand for diammonium phosphate in summer agricultural production.
However, with the decline of social inventories, enterprises and grassroots inventories are limited, and there is a shortage of market supply this summer, especially the lack of spot supply, which has led to continuous rise in the price of phosphate fertilizer
.

From January to July 2021, the average ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3012 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.

　　Due to the strong ability of large-scale potash fertilizer companies to control goods, even in the off-season of demand, the situation of "high prices for sale" in the market has gradually increased, driving the price of potash fertilizer
.

On July 30, 2021, the price of potassium chloride was 3.

　　(2) Review of pesticide price situation

　(2) Review of pesticide price situation

　　From January to July 2021, the price of glyphosate technical medicine continued to rise
.

At the beginning of the year, the supply of glycine, an important raw material for pesticides, was tight and the price rose, and the production cost of glyphosate technical rose accordingly; stimulated by the increase in cost-end prices, the price of glyphosate rose slowly

　　Data source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Data source: Zhuo Chuang Information

Figure 2 Glyphosate market price trend chart from 2021 to present

Figure 2 Glyphosate market price trend chart from 2021 to present

　　2.
Prices of raw materials are rising, domestic supply is tight, and prices of fertilizers and pesticides may continue to run at a high level

2.
Prices of raw materials are rising, domestic supply is tight, and prices of fertilizers and pesticides may continue to run at a high level

　　(1) Reasons for the price increase of fertilizers and pesticides

　　(1) Reasons for the price increase of fertilizers and pesticides

　　1.
Rising raw material prices

　　Affected by factors such as continuous increase in raw material prices, export stimulus, limited domestic inventories, and increased demand, the spot supply of some fertilizers and pesticides is tight, and prices have risen
.

　　In the first half of the year, the prices of coal, sulfur, sulfuric acid, phosphate ore and synthetic ammonia continued to rise.
The price of anthracite washed medium rose to 1373 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.
05% from the beginning of the year.
The price of sulfuric acid in Hubei rose to nearly 1000 yuan/ton, an increase of 122.
00%.
The price of 28% grade phosphate ore rose to about 530 yuan/ton, an increase of about 51.
43%, driving the continuous increase in the cost of urea and phosphate fertilizer
.

Due to the rapid and large increase in the cost of raw materials, fertilizer companies did not store raw materials in time, and failed to buffer the pressure in time.

　　The prices of most basic chemical raw materials are relatively strong, and the prices of raw materials related to glyphosate are also in the upward channel, such as methanol, liquid chlorine, acetic acid, and yellow phosphorus
.

The price of important intermediate glycine rose from RMB 15,500/ton at the beginning of the year to RMB 25,000/ton, a cumulative increase of 61.

　　2.
Rising international demand

　　After the fertilizer was used in the spring, the international market demand soared and prices continued to rise.
The sales focus of fertilizer manufacturers turned to exports, and domestic shipments basically stagnated
.

The release of international fertilizer production capacity due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia public health incident has led to a slower release of fertilizer inventory levels in countries such as India and increased import demand

　　3.
Increase in domestic demand

　　In terms of market demand, rising food prices and favorable state subsidies have increased farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, and the acreage of agricultural products has increased; the production of downstream compound fertilizers, melamine and other industries has also increased to a certain extent this year, and both production and demand are working together.
The prices of chemical fertilizers and pesticides continue to hit new highs
.

　　(2) Price trend of fertilizers and pesticides

　　(2) Price trend of fertilizers and pesticides

　　At present, the market is in the autumn fertilizer preparation stage.
July-September is the centralized stocking period.
Domestic demand will increase and dealers' purchases will continue to increase.
Fertilizer production will continue to remain stable, and the focus of supply will shift from abroad to domestic
.
Due to the tight supply of chemical fertilizers in the first half of the year, even if the domestic supply increases from August to September, it is expected that there will be no oversupply in the fall
.

　　As the cost of raw materials continues to run at a high level, after the start of fertilizer use in the autumn of October, the market price may remain at a high level
.
Under the national policy of "guarantee supply and stabilize prices", it is expected that the rate of price increase will slow down
.
It is estimated that in the autumn fertilizer preparation stage, the reference price of 45% of compound fertilizers is 3400-3450 yuan/ton, the reference price of 45% high phosphate fertilizer is about 3200 yuan/ton; the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% diammonium is 3200-3600 yuan/ton; mainstream urea The price is 2700-2750 yuan/ton
.

　　As some glyphosate technical companies have plans for successive overhauls, the overall supply will be tightened
.
Entering the fourth quarter, the downstream reserves are limited.
The demand for glyphosate is expected to increase.
Both the supply and demand of the market are relatively active, and the production cost of pesticides is still running at a high level.
Therefore, the market for glyphosate technical materials may be stable in the later stage.
% Glyphosate technical price will rise to 55,000 yuan/ton
.

　　3.
Ensure the stable supply of raw materials and ensure the sustainable production of domestic fertilizers and pesticides

　　3.
Ensure the stable supply of raw materials and ensure the sustainable production of domestic fertilizers and pesticides

　　Fertilizers and pesticides are important means of production in agriculture and basic industries related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
Controlling their prices within a reasonable range plays a very important role in ensuring farmers' income and enthusiasm for growing grain, and ensuring national food security
.
Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the supply of raw materials for its production to ensure normal domestic production
.

　　The first is to strengthen price monitoring and trend forecasting, and release relevant information in a timely manner to avoid market turmoil caused by information confusion; at the same time, increase policy support for enterprises, activate idle production capacity, and ensure market supply
.
The second is to actively control and ensure the stable supply of raw materials for fertilizer companies.
For example, through effective means to ensure the coal consumption indicators of domestic urea companies to ensure the smooth commissioning of new urea production capacity
.
The third is to encourage domestic enterprises to give priority to guaranteeing domestic supply.
Due to the increase in international market demand and rising international prices, the large number of enterprises exporting has led to a shortage of some domestic products.
Policies should be introduced to encourage enterprises to give priority to guaranteeing domestic supply
.
The fourth is to promote technological upgrading, speed up the replacement of high-toxicity, high-efficiency and low-toxicity and high-efficiency products, promote fertilizer reduction technology, and improve the use efficiency of pesticides and fertilizers
.