The pressure of the trade war remains, and the Shanghai rubber is on the strong side of the day

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract opened at 12310 yuan / ton, the highest price was 12395 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 12265 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 12325 yuan / ton; Up 15 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.
12%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1903 contract is 168.
5 yen/kg, the highest price is 170.
6 yen/kg, the lowest price is 167.
5 yen/kg, and the closing price is 168.
7 yen/kg; The trading volume was 2097 lots, and the position volume was 11401 lots
.

Domestic sales area market quotation: Shanghai market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation 10900 (0/0) yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 17 years full latex quotation -(-) yuan/ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk tax quotation 11100/11200 (0/0) yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 18 years full latex quotation 11400/11500 (0/0) yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period decreased by 140 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the previous period was reported at 519680 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai increased by 330 tons, Yunnan decreased by 110 tons, Shandong decreased by 250 tons, Tianjin decreased by 110 tons, and Hainan Ping
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1901 contract was strongly volatile on Friday, and the night trading stabilized
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line found support near the 10-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD green column narrowed and turned red; On the daily chart, the K-line returned to the vicinity of the central axis of the previous oscillation track, and the technical indicator MACD red column turned green
.
Trading volume and position volume declined, and the technical picture was weak
.
The top 20 members held positions, long 76079 (-2505), short 111530 (-5780), net short 35451 lots
.

【Viewpoint and operation suggestions】

1.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 607,000 tons in September 2018, a slight decrease of 0.
3% from the previous month and a decrease of 8.
0%
from the same period last year.
From the first to the third quarter of 2018, China imported a total of 5.
121 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a slight increase of 0.
2%
over the same period in 2017.

On the evening of October 11, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, the China Automobile Dealers Association submitted a document to the government last month, proposing to halve the purchase tax for vehicles with displacement of 2.
0L and below to 5%.

Three years ago, China halved the purchase tax for emissions of 1.
6L and below, but the policy was abolished
earlier this year.

It is worth mentioning that as soon as the above news came out, the industry quickly talked about it
.
However, according to the first time Auto Headlines confirmed to the China Automobile Dealers Association, officials called it "fake news"
.
Although the official "fake news" was the first time to refute the rumors, but in fact, the industry has long discussed the introduction of stimulus policies, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Federation, said, "As early as June and July, the relevant departments put forward relevant suggestions to the government, hoping to promote the current cold car market to pick up in the fourth quarter, but until October, there was no formal introduction of relevant policies
.
" ”

Coincidentally, on the same day, the State Council also issued an implementation plan for improving the consumption promotion system and mechanism, which mentioned that in order to promote the optimization and upgrading of automobile consumption, the preferential policy of new energy purchase tax will continue to be implemented, which has also aroused great reverie
from the outside world.

3.
A strong dollar and high oil prices are plaguing Asia, as Fed rate hikes and a stronger dollar inevitably weaken emerging market currencies
.
At the same time, dollar-denominated energy prices have become more expensive
for exporting countries.
China's two "sharp weapons" have severely damaged the status of
the US dollar.
China has twice hit the dollar's status hard, making the prospect of the dollar as the world's reserve currency a hot topic
of discussion.
First, China's Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched trading of yuan-denominated crude oil futures
.
Although the size of RMB crude oil futures is not yet completely equal to British North Sea Brent crude and US West Texas Light crude oil
.
However, China has been working hard to expand the product's appeal
.
The second is the opening of China's bond market, which has promoted the internationalization
of the renminbi.
Goldman Sachs analysts have found that foreign investment has significantly accelerated in recent months from U.
S.
Treasuries to renminbi-denominated Chinese bonds, a trend that is intensifying
.
According to monthly statistics from China Bond Information Network, foreign institutions continued to increase their holdings of Chinese onshore bonds in September, marking the 19th consecutive month of increasing their holdings of onshore Chinese bonds
.
As of the end of September, the balance of bonds held by foreign institutions in custody reached 1.
44 trillion yuan
.
It reflects the concern of foreign investors in China's bond market and confidence in
China's economy.

As of the close of the night trading at 11-01, the spread closed at 1540 yuan / ton, and the mixed spot of premium water on the plate was 1525-1625 yuan / ton
.
Exchange inventories remained around 520,000 tons, stocks in bonded areas fell sharply before the holiday, stocks outside the zone fell back, tire companies actively stocked up before the holiday, the situation of outbound warehouses outside the zone improved, and the operating rate continued to strengthen
after the holiday.
It is rumored that the State Council will improve the export tax rebate policy, tire companies will benefit, in addition, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, the China Automobile Dealers Association submitted a document to the government last month, proposing to halve the vehicle purchase tax for models with a displacement of 2.
0L and below to 5%.

Under the downward pressure of the domestic economy, it is expected that there will be more
expectations for policy benefits in the later period.
However, for now, the pressure of the trade war remains, and there are many uncertain risks in the peripheral market, and we expect that Shanghai rubber will still be dominated by shocks in the range of 12,000-12,600 yuan / ton
.