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Since the beginning of this year, China's potash fertilizer market has been in short supply, and the price has risen astonishingly.
The highest price of potassium chloride has exceeded 4,200 yuan/ton, reaching a 10-year high
.
"From a later point of view, the overall supply of potash fertilizer will remain tight in the second half of the year, and the price will remain high due to the impact of the international market, but excessively high prices will inhibit demand growth.
Potash fertilizer is currently the only domestic fertilizer that cannot be self-sufficient, and its price changes are closely related to the international market
.
According to Zhou Yue's introduction, in May last year, the price of potash in the international market was still at the second lowest value in the past 10 years, and then began to rise slowly
.
Especially after February this year, under the influence of factors such as global economic recovery, soaring food prices, and unusually tight supply, the international potash fertilizer market has risen fiercely
"The long-term oversupply of potash fertilizer in the world has been reversed, so this year the global potash fertilizer market will continue to be in short supply and high prices
.
" Zhou Yue said in an analysis
From the perspective of overall global supply, Canada's largest Nutrien company plans to increase actual production by 500,000 tons this year, and sales will also increase from 13.
3 million tons to 13.
8 million tons
.
Due to the early closure of its Esterhazy mine shaft in Saskatchewan, Canada, Mosaic is expected to reduce production by 1 million tons
Therefore, from the perspective of global supply, this year's total potash fertilizer supply will not decrease too much or basically the same as last year.
The biggest variable depends on the output of Belarusian BPC
.
Because the EU imposes economic sanctions on Belarus, the volume of products that restrict their exports will account for 15% to 20% of its total exports
From the perspective of demand, the overall demand for potash fertilizer is improving
.
According to the International Fertilizer Association, the demand for potash fertilizer will expand by about 1.
"Affected by the international market, domestic potash fertilizer prices will remain relatively high in the future
.
" Zhou Yue said
It is worth noting that the current high market price of potash will have a great impact on farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, and it will also be very detrimental to ensuring national food security
.
Therefore, industry insiders call for the high market price to be restored to a reasonable and normal level as soon as possible
To this end, the Potash Fertilizer Industry Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association put forward suggestions to maintain supply and stabilize prices: First, the government's macro-control, release some state reserves, and stabilize prices; strengthen the monitoring of seaborne imports, and increase the source of border trade
.
The second is that domestic enterprises make plans for next year's production, increase the operating rate as much as possible, and ensure domestic output
.
The third is to accelerate the development of overseas projects to ensure that the potash fertilizer products produced by China's overseas potash fertilizer projects are shipped back to the country
.
Fourth, when the domestic potash fertilizer price is abnormally low, the preferential policies of potash fertilizer production enterprises will be restored to a certain extent, and the supply of railway transportation will be guaranteed
.
Fifth, at an appropriate time when prices in the international market are low, increase the amount of potash fertilizer in the country's chemical fertilizer commercial reserves, and play the role of market regulation of potash fertilizer reserves
.
