The POM market has not yet finished bottoming

　　In the off-season, the polyoxymethylene resin (POM) market has been stagnant due to the decline in demand and the impact of imported goods
.
As of June 19, the POM East China Yuyao Market Yuntianhua M90 reference price including tax is 22,000~22,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 1,500~1,700 yuan lower than the price in early May
.

　　Looking at the market outlook, although the equipment maintenance is good for the market, but the demand is sluggish, coupled with the lack of support for the cost, it is expected that the POM market price will still fall
.

　　High inventory and poor shipments

　　According to Ge Linlin, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, at present, the focus of the POM market is lower, and the transaction situation is not optimistic
.
Whether it is the mainstream offer in the domestic material market or some offers in the imported material market, there is a downward trend
.
Affected by the psychology of buying up and not buying down, downstream users hold more currency and wait and see, the overall purchase intention is low, and the trading atmosphere is sluggish
.

　　In terms of supply, the operating rate of the POM industry has maintained a high level of more than 80% in the second quarter, especially after the second-phase POM plant of Yankuang Luhua Group resumed operation on June 11, the operating rate of the industry reached about 94%
.

　　Specifically, Yuntianhua's 90,000-ton/year POM plant is operating at full capacity, while Shenhua Group's 60,000-ton/year and Kaifeng Longyu Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
's 40,000-ton/year plant are running smoothly
.
At present, the spot inventory pressure of POM manufacturers is relatively high, and traders are under pressure to ship
.

　　In addition, low-priced imported supplies also suppressed the POM market
.
According to statistics, from January to May, China imported a total of 120,100 tons of POM, a year-on-year increase of 2.
67%
.

　　For the market outlook, Ge Linlin believes that Shenhua Group's 60,000-ton/year POM unit will undergo a one-month maintenance on June 20, and the total supply will be significantly reduced
.
However, the inventory of manufacturers is high, and the overhaul news has a limited effect on the market.
In addition, traders are under pressure on shipments, and downstream users are mainly digesting the existing inventory.
It is expected that POM prices still have room to fall
.

　　Raw materials are weak and difficult to support

　　The POM raw material formaldehyde market finally rose slightly in June after fluctuating and declining for two consecutive months from early April
.
However, the buying in the market remains rational, the terminal inquiries remain cautious, the rigid demand support is weak, and the profit of the formaldehyde factory continues to hang upside down
.

　　Since mid-June, the market price of formaldehyde has been slightly raised in Shandong under the rising cost, while the downstream board factory just needs to purchase mainly, and the formaldehyde factory has maintained quantitative shipments; some formaldehyde factories in Henan region still sell at a profit in order to maintain high-load operation.
Maintain the volume of orders; Jiangsu, Guangxi and other regions maintain the normal operation of the equipment under the high cost, and the enterprises are struggling to increase the volume, and the shipments basically continue to be stable
.

　　According to incomplete statistics, the current domestic capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is 47.
58%
.
However, the formaldehyde plant of Zhenjiang Li Changrong Comprehensive Petrochemical Co.
, Ltd.
has been restarted, and the plant of Puyang Pengxin Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
is expected to restart in the near future, and the supply of formaldehyde is expected to increase in the later period
.

　　From the perspective of demand, the resumption of work and production in the terminal construction, infrastructure, real estate and other industries is limited.
In addition, under the influence of high temperature, rainy and other weather, the outdoor operations of wood panel factories have dropped sharply.
Therefore, the operating rate of the industry is lower than the level of the off-season in previous years, and the support for formaldehyde demand is weak
.
"Formaldehyde is subject to the fact that traditional downstream demand is frequently lower than the lowest level in previous years, and it is difficult to ease the pressure on factory shipments.
The market outlook is expected to be weak, and it is difficult to form a strong support for the POM market
.
" Yan Huixin, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said
.

　　Demand is weak in off-season

　　POM is widely used in industries such as automobiles
.
Affected by the epidemic, POM's downstream factories have reduced their burdens to varying degrees.
Some of them were forced to shut down due to epidemic control, so the output was significantly reduced compared with last year
.
Although downstream demand has gradually recovered with the effective control of the epidemic, the overall follow-up is limited, and it is difficult to support the POM market on the demand side
.

　　From the perspective of the automobile industry, from January to May, China's automobile production and sales volume decreased by 9.
6% and 12.
2% year-on-year respectively
.
At present, downstream demand is in the off-season, and the start of construction is not satisfactory.
The overall load is only about 50%.
In addition, there is a strong bearish sentiment on the market outlook for raw materials.
Most of them are mainly consumed by inventory, and the willingness to enter the market is not high
.
At the same time, due to the poor profit situation, the downstream does not rule out the possibility of further negative reduction
.

　　The demand side of POM is also favorable.
Recently, the demand for POM abroad has increased significantly
.
In April, China's total POM exports were 2,330 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20.
94% and a year-on-year increase of 4.
62%
.
Although the export volume is not large, it has played a certain role in alleviating the pressure on domestic supply
.

　　On the whole, the current domestic market demand is weak, the oversupply of POM makes it difficult for merchants to increase the volume, and the POM social inventory and corporate inventory continue to be under pressure
.
The traditional off-season in China is coming, and the demand will be further weakened.
Although it is good for the maintenance of goods, it is difficult to change the contradiction between supply and demand, and the short-term POM market is still weak
.