The plunge in crude oil triggered panic, and Shanghai aluminum hit a new low

The turmoil in the financial market on the previous day once again caused panic in the market, and the plunge in crude oil triggered a derivatives earthquake, and Shanghai aluminum hit a new low
.
The fundamentals are still bearish, and the continuation of accumulation has brought greater pressure to the spot market, which also shows that the downstream resumption of work is not ideal
.

From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, new enterprises with greater advantages are still starting one after another, mainly concentrated in hydropower, and other production capacities are more wait-and-see
.
This is the opposite of the industrial chain under the imbalance between supply and demand in the whole society during the epidemic, which makes the market bearish sentiment unabated
.

From the perspective of industrial chain cost, most of the electrolytic aluminum smelting enterprises have been in a loss state from the perspective of complete cost, but high inventory and poor downstream demand do not see signs of improvement; The profit of alumina manufacturers has been above the break-even line, but the output has not been significantly improved, and there may still be momentum for price increases in the later period
.
At present, macro risks have exceeded the risks of the industry itself, and whether it will continue to compress the cost of the industry still needs to pay attention to whether the financial market is stable, and Shanghai aluminum may still maintain a weak volatility
.

Industry News:

1.
In accordance with the document requirements of the Notice on Clarifying Matters Related to the Management of Railway Freight Prices (Iron Total Price [2015] No.
294), the Measures for the Independent Examination and Approval of "Competitive Flat Price" Project Management by Freight Centers (Provisional)" (Wutie Price [2016] No.
315), and the Notice of Urumqi Bureau Group Company on Announcing the 2019 Freight Price Strategy and Related Matters (V) (Wutuqi Cargo Power [2019] No.
757), After the collective study of the center's bargaining management team, the Urumqi Freight Center implemented preferential prices
for some categories of one-price items.

2.
From 2002 to 2018, China processed and utilized about 100 million tons of imported recycled non-ferrous metal raw materials (physical quantity), about 85 million tons of domestic recycled non-ferrous metal raw materials (metal quantity), at least 23 national "urban minerals" demonstration bases with recycled copper, recycled aluminum, recycled lead and zinc, recycled rare precious metals, etc.
as the leading industries, a large number of recycled non-ferrous metal backbone enterprises played a leading role
in demonstration and radiation.
According to preliminary estimates, China's recycled non-ferrous metal output in 2019 will be about 14.
37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.
9%.

Affected by market sentiment on the previous day, Shanghai aluminum opened above the 10,000-one line, but then repaired, and the upper and lower space for aluminum prices during the week was still limited
.
Price operation logic: some of the industry's production capacity has lost profits, and the price decline space is limited
.
Shanghai aluminum prices are expected to repair slightly upward during the day, but the negative of high inventories and long-term medium capacity climbing makes the upward force limited, and it is expected that the price will still be weak during the week
.