The PE market is consolidating in a narrow range, showing a trend of first declining and then rising

Crude oil: In September, oil prices generally showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the rise was large
.
Mainly because the United States increased sanctions against Iran, resulting in a significant decline in Iran's crude oil production and exports, which pushed oil prices higher
.
and lower demand concerns due to intensifying trade disputes limited some of the gains in oil prices
.
On Friday, September 28, the West Texas Light Oil November 2018 futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $73.
25 per barrel, trading in a range of $71.
88-$73.
73, and the November 2018 Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in London settled at $82.
72 per barrel, trading in a range of $81.
6-$82.
87
.

Ethylene: According to analysis, the price of ethylene in Asia in September generally showed a trend of first rising and then falling and then rising, the main reason was that in the early stage, due to a large number of ocean-going sources entering the Asian market, the market supply was oversupplied, the bearish sentiment of the industry was stronger, and ethylene prices fell under pressure; At the end of the month, due to the concentrated stocking behavior of domestic buyers before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, market demand was greatly boosted, and ethylene prices in Northeast Asia were supported to rise, but Southeast Asia due to the low operating rate of downstream products such as polyethylene, and most of the demand has been met, so the price is mainly stable
.

Petrochemical manufacturers: 1.
Price adjustment: In September, in terms of ex-factory prices of domestic petrochemical manufacturers, LDPE, LLDPE and HDPE showed a situation
of first falling and then rising.
The main reasons for the price adjustment of petrochemical plants are: a.
The overall trend of polyethylene futures showed a weak trend, there was a rebound in the middle of the month and continued to rise, petrochemical prices rose one after another, and at the same time, the month coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and some factories replenished their positions appropriately before the holiday, giving further support
to the rise in spot.
b.
In September, the operating rate of agricultural film products entered the peak season, and other varieties of products maintained normal operation, although there was an impact on environmental protection, and downstream shipments were not active, and procurement was just demand-based
.
In February and September, the maintenance situation of some equipment of petrochemical manufacturers was general, and on the whole, the domestic maintenance loss decreased month-on-month, but the impact on downstream inventory was not great
.
3.
Inventory: The pressure on the inventory digestion of petrochemical plants in September is reduced
compared with August.
Mainly the futures medium-term continuous rise, to the business confidence is better, to the market has a certain favorable support, although downstream enterprises are still cautious wait-and-see, but the overall situation of inventory digestion pressure is not large
.
It is expected that the total domestic inventory volume in October will fluctuate in a narrow range
.

Futures: September futures trend first fell and then rose
.
A volatile rise began to occur in the middle of the month, which had a greater
impact on the overall trend situation.
At present, the impact on the spot market is weak, merchants are cautious in quotations, and the transaction situation is general, mainly just demand-based
.
It is expected to maintain a narrow range of volatility in the early part of October, and it is recommended to maintain a cautious wait-and-see situation
.

In terms of downstream enterprises, the peak season of agricultural film and mulch film production began in September, and the operating rate rebounded
.
It has an impact
on the current trading situation.
Looking forward to October, agricultural film demand may continue to maintain the peak season, terminal orders are expected to improve significantly, and other industries are mainly stable
starts.
The supply and demand situation has not changed much, and it is still dominated by rigid demand
.

Future market forecast: The upstream crude oil market consolidated at a high level in October, forming a cost support
for the downstream industry.
On the supply side, imports in the early stage of October are expected to be weak, and domestic maintenance losses have decreased month-on-month, and total domestic supply in October increased
month-on-month.
After returning from the National Day long holiday, the basic situation of PE in the early stage of October was narrowly consolidated, and the market trading situation may have improved, but it still maintains a cautious attitude
.