The PC market rally or is short-lived

Entering September, the domestic polycarbonate (PC) market ushered in a long-lost rebound

In the future market, the demand growth is less than expected, coupled with the release of its own new production capacity, it is expected that the PC rally will be difficult to last, and the loss and profit of production enterprises are almost hopeless

Supplies are expected to increase

The PC market showed a low consolidation pattern

It is understood that in early September, 260,000 tons / year PC devices in North China were temporarily reduced due to unexpected conditions, and the PC market followed

At present, the load of domestic PC production enterprises is low, about

"In addition, the 200,000 tons / year PC device of Taihua Guangguang has recently been restarted, and the emergency situation device in North China has gradually resumed production, coupled with the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical PC device storage and production plan, the PC market supply is expected to increase

Peak demand season is not strong

PC supply is expected to increase, while downstream demand is affected by many factors such as the domestic macroeconomic slowdown and the epidemic, and the growth is limited, which will put pressure on the PC market

From the current point of view, the impact of "power curtailment" has weakened, but the downstream demand peak season is not strong, and the new orders of terminal factories have not reached the same

From the perspective of the downstream automotive industry, from January to August, although China's automobile production and sales increased by 4.

In addition, exports are also difficult to drive the PC market to continue to rise

Data show that from January to July, China's PC cumulative exports of 182,600 tons, down about 11% year-on-year; The cumulative import of 815,000 tons is basically the same

Xiangfeifei analysis believes that the demand is less than expected, coupled with its own sufficient supply, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to straighten out, which will drag down the PC market to continue to rise

Cost inversion is difficult to change

Since mid-to-late July, the raw material bisphenol A market has continued to oscillate upwards, and the price has risen from 11,700 yuan to the current 13,200 yuan, squeezing PC profit space

Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the average profit of tons of products in the PC industry was 617 yuan, the best level in the same period in the past 3 years, but it was only 43 yuan in

Jin Lianchuang analyst Ge Linlin believes that an important factor for the bisphenol A market to start a reversal journey is the gradual increase in the downstream operating rate, while the bisphenol A production enterprises have no production and marketing pressure to actively support the market

"In the future, the overall operation of bisphenol A downstream epoxy resin and PC enterprises is relatively stable, and the demand for bisphenol A still exists