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Shanghai copper ended its rally last week, helped by favorable Chinese policies, which led to a retreat in short trades and improved metal demand outlook
.
However, overseas markets remain bearish, with hawkish Fed minutes and strong U.
S.
employment data supporting a stronger dollar, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals, with Shanghai copper down 1.
84%
on a weekly basis.
On the macro front, copper prices have limited gains due to pressure on inflation overseas, and a strong U.
S.
labor force that could force the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates and remain higher for longer
.
Domestically, we will increase investment projects and implement precise policies to promote the stable development of the real estate market and trigger market expectations
for demand improvement.
In terms of demand, at present, the weekly operating rate of domestic fine copper rod enterprises continues to decline, down 2.
38 percentage points
year-on-year.
In addition, near the end of the year, the "spring cold" brought about by the epidemic has caused some processing enterprises to have plans to take a holiday in advance, and export demand has also weakened, showing the overall trend of traditional off-season, and the market is filled with a dull atmosphere
.
On the supply side, overseas copper production disturbances are strong, the fire at Chile's Ventanas port (which accounts for nearly 17% of Chile's total copper concentrate exports) affects transportation, and Peru's LasBambas shipments are still poor; Operational risks to FirstQuantum Panama remain; Chile's copper production decreased
significantly in November.
Global copper smelting activity declined in December, with smelters shutting down for maintenance
after a year of downturn.
At present, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory has rebounded, but the spot processing fee has fallen at a high level; Tight crude copper supplies, limited refined copper production, and overhauls at some refineries resulted in lower-than-expected
actual production.
In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory of Shanghai copper accumulated to around 80,000 tons, and the London copper inventory is running steadily, but the overall inventory level remains low, which still supports prices
.
In terms of spot, under the influence of the quiet trading atmosphere at the end of the year, the market showed a stalemate posture, the purchasing momentum of the receiver continued to weaken, there was no positive performance of the hoarding warehouse, the transaction enthusiasm was biased, and the overall consumption was difficult to buy.
In terms of stocks, London copper stocks declined, with a cumulative decrease of 2,525 tons to 86,400 tons, down 2.
84%
from the previous week.
Shanghai copper inventories continued to rise during the week, accumulating an increase of 11,130 tons to 80,398 tons, an increase of 16.
07%
from the previous week.
Overall, the overseas atmosphere is empty, while the domestic macro expectation is good, but the weak pattern of supply and demand is difficult to change in the short term, and under the pressure of domestic accumulation, it is difficult for prices to have bright performance, and still maintain a volatile trend
.
