The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to reverse, and rubber spot prices have not risen as much as futures prices

As of September 16: total stock on the exchange 293686 (+3969), exchange warehouse receipt 261550 (+540).

Raw materials: raw film 45.
5 (-0.
38), cup glue 39.
55 (-0.
12), glue 45.
5 (0), tobacco film 48.
11 (+0.
02).

As of September 15, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 50.
42% (-3.
59%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 55.
98% (-5.
96%)
.

As the plate price continued to rise, the spot market sentiment improved slightly, but the increase was not as much as the futures price, the basis weakened slightly, and the RU non-standard spread continued to widen
.
Fundamentals have not changed much
.
Recently there has been more rainfall in Thailand's main producing areas, but raw material prices have continued to be weak, or reflect that the drag on demand is still large
.
China is close to the National Day for a long time, downstream tire factories have a relatively long maintenance plan during the holiday, therefore, the short-term operating rate may increase to make up for the reduction of some holiday production, so under the pressure of domestic supply is not large, the recent port inventory and social inventory have the possibility
of a small destocking.
However, in the medium term, there is no bright spot in the later period of supply increase and demand, the loose pattern of supply and demand is difficult to reverse, and domestic demand does not pick up significantly, it is expected that the pressure of domestic accumulation will gradually be reflected
.
It is recommended to treat the current rally
rationally.
In the medium term, there is no bright spot in the later period of supply increase and demand, the loose pattern of supply and demand is difficult to reverse, and domestic demand is expected to gradually reflect
before domestic demand does not pick up significantly.