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On Friday, Shanghai aluminum rebounded from 19,600 yuan / ton to a maximum of 19,930 yuan / ton, and fell again overnight, as of the close of 1 a.
m.
on June 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum was 19,600 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton, down 0.
38%.
Lun aluminum closed at $2,503/mt, down 18.
5 points, or 0.
73%, the lowest since
August 2021.
On June 16, the spot price of Yangtze River A00 aluminum ingot was 19,900 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton
from the previous day.
The average monthly price in June was 20461 yuan / ton
.
At the macro level, the overseas environment is difficult to be optimistic, inflation problems in Europe and the United States and other countries have intensified, countries represented by the United States have entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, liquidity has tightened, and economic growth expectations have also declined
.
Domestically, the epidemic hindered the effectiveness of the previous policy, and at the same time, under the background of high unemployment rate and declining growth rate of disposable income, residents' consumption capacity and willingness were low, which was not conducive to the growth
of aluminum downstream consumption.
The boost and effectiveness of domestic policies in the second half of the year are important factors
affecting changes in aluminum demand in the medium and long term.
Fundamentally, demand growth has slowed
.
Downstream starts are still picking up, up 0.
6 percentage points month-on-month to 66.
5% last week, and the stimulation margin from Shanghai's resumption of work and production has weakened after entering June, resulting in a gradual slowdown
in the growth rate of downstream leading processing enterprises.
In terms of inventory, the recent aluminum ingot + aluminum rod destocking and outbound data is more eye-catching, on the one hand, the impact of repeated pledge events in the warehouse is still continuing, which distorts inventory changes, on the other hand, the rapid decline in aluminum prices last week triggered downstream buying demand
.
On the whole, the macro environment pressure is greater, the growth rate of superimposed electrolytic aluminum supply is still expected to be greater than demand, and aluminum prices are expected to run weakly, and the sector can be considered as empty allocation
.
The current aluminum price is testing around the marginal cost of 19500, if it breaks further downward, it is recommended to focus on the 19000 support
below.
