The overall trend of Shanghai aluminum is still strong, but we must not have high expectations

Since the emergence of the power rationing problem, the supply-side disturbance has intensified, and strong fundamentals have strongly supported aluminum prices and helped them to continue to rise
.
On Tuesday, the NDRC's regular press conference in August emphasized the implementation of curbing the "two highs" and the "dual control" of energy consumption, which once again strengthened concerns about production cuts, and bulls' sentiment was greatly boosted, which became the trigger for aluminum prices to hit a new high in 13 years
.
However, the global epidemic continues to deteriorate, the subsequent release of Sino-US macroeconomic indicators are not as expected, coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal, the market atmosphere has taken a sharp turn, risk aversion has increased sharply, macro bearishness has prevailed, and aluminum prices have fallen
greatly.

At present, the main logic that determines the price of aluminum is returning to the fundamental supply and demand relationship, and by the end of this week, Shanghai aluminum has returned to more than
20,000.
In the context of the difficulty of solving the power rationing in August, the peak season in September, and the continuous maintenance of a low inventory of about 700,000 tons, it is expected that aluminum prices will still be prone to rise and fall
in the short term.
However, the current macro news is mixed, expanding the uncertainty of the market, and the volatility of aluminum prices may expand.

The domestic price stabilization policy guidelines and overseas Fed monetary policy decisions are all risk points
that need to be paid attention to in the near future.