The overall strength of rubber and the consolidation pattern were broken

On the supply side, the world has entered a period of seasonal low production; Thailand's low production period combined with more rainfall affected raw material output, and raw material prices increased compared with before the holiday; Vietnam's state-run rubber plantation is expected to try rubber tapping in early April, about half a month earlier than last year; Partial cutting began in late March, and full cutting is expected around mid-April, about 20 days earlier than last year; It is expected that China's Hainan production area is currently only in the southeast of a few areas of trial cutting, glue production is scarce, into the concentrated dairy plant raw materials purchase price of 15,000 yuan / ton, into the whole latex plant raw materials purchase price of 12,500 yuan / ton, some areas of powdery mildew, but the overall impact is relatively low, most of the areas are expected to be trial cutting
in mid-to-late April.

In terms of domestic demand, the operating rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises this week was 59.
43%, -5.
13% month-on-month and -13.
94%
year-on-year.
This week, the operating rate of China's all-steel tire sample enterprises was 54.
17%, -6.
48% month-on-month and -24.
22%
year-on-year.
In general, the demand side is expected to be affected by the domestic epidemic in the future, and the situation of freight obstruction has not improved, which is negative for the current domestic market demand
.

In terms of inventory, as of April 8, 2022, the inventory of finished semi-steel tires in Shandong was 41.
56 days, an increase of 0.
29 days from the previous month and 7.
56 days from the same period last year, and the inventory of finished steel tires was 42.
13 days, an increase of 0.
63 days from the previous month and 9.
25 days
from the same period last year.
The pressure on finished product inventory is greater, and the height of recovery after the impact of the public health event is weakened
.

According to media disclosures, since late March, SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle, SAIC-GM, SAIC Volkswagen and other plants have reduced production or even directly suspended production
.
Not only Shanghai vehicle manufacturing enterprises, but also many parts manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta region have also been affected, and the automotive industry chain is difficult to operate normally
.
In addition, Shanghai currently strictly restricts the driving of motor vehicles on the road, and the demand for tire replacement is also declining
.
However, the import volume of foreign rubber to Hong Kong is also at a low level, and once downstream demand recovers, the contradiction of insufficient supply will be more significant
.
In the short term, the bottoming trend of rubber prices may not be completed, and from a medium and long-term perspective, it is likely that the upside will be greater than the downside in the future
.