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The U.
S.
dollar index fell for days, plus China and the United States released the goodwill of trade negotiations, the outer metal generally rose on Friday, and the three-month aluminum price on the London Stock Exchange closed at $1813 / ton
.
Pre-holiday Shanghai aluminum closed slightly higher than 14425 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, the spot market transaction did not rise, the enthusiasm for downstream stocking was not high, and the middlemen also did not have the willingness to stock up, and the mainstream transaction price in Shanghai was around 14520 yuan / ton, which was about 20 lower than the futures discount
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 14540 yuan / ton
.
At present, the seasonal consumption of the domestic market is improving, short-term production will not recover significantly, supply and demand fundamentals have improved, and inventories continue to degrade, which has greater support
for aluminum prices.
The current geopolitical policy tensions in the Middle East may arouse market avoidance, which has a certain negative impact on aluminum prices, but the impact on domestic aluminum prices may be limited
.
In the short term
, it is recommended to maintain the idea of dip hunting and bullishness.
Industry News:
1.
ECB interest rate decision: cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.
5%, the first cut since March 2016; Maintain the financing interest rate and loan interest rate unchanged
.
The ECB announced a 10 basis point rate cut, an expectation that had already been priced in by the market, and the euro rose more than 45 points against the dollar to 1.
1068
.
However, the European Bank also announced the restart of QE, restarting its asset purchase program from November 1 at 20 billion euros
per month.
And the implementation of the interest rate grading system will begin, and the exchange rate will quickly turn down
.
At press time, the euro fell nearly 65 pips to 1.
0961 against the dollar, with short-term volatility reaching nearly 110 points
.
2.
Norsk Hydro ASA recently announced that it will carry out a comprehensive restructuring of its rolled products business, including stopping production and laying off employees
in some regions.
The restructuring will include the closure of part of the aluminum foil capacity
at the Grevenbroich plant in Germany.
Hydro Norway is now refocusing its focus on growth potential markets, including automotive and aluminium cans, and has added a car line 3 at its Grevenbroich plant in Germany and reduced its can recycling business
at its Neuss plant.
The Shanghai aluminum festival maintained a pattern of high volatility, and the external market picked up
slightly on Friday under the macro favor.
The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are improving during the month, the short-term impact of supply reduction is still there, the volume of shipments has steadily rebounded, the inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline, while the consumer end of automobiles and power grids are expected to usher in seasonal improvement, and real estate can play a supporting role
.
At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the short-term impact of the fermentation of rumors of Indonesia's ban on the market, short-term under the macro favor, nonferrous metals are expected to recover overall overall, Shanghai aluminum may continue to explore, but the increase is expected to be limited, and it is not recommended to blindly chase long
.
