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This week, the overall fluctuation of domestic spot aluminum prices is not large, the market transaction is general, the supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream enterprises have not seen obvious receipts, and the resumption of work is relatively slow
.
From the futures market chart, Lun aluminum continued its downward trend and closed again this week
.
Lower support around
1650-1700.
After opening low, Shanghai aluminum rebounded weakly and rushed back down, falling below the small platform
of the previous consolidation.
Lower support around
13200.
At the beginning of the week, spot aluminum prices rose more than futures front-month contracts, and futures far-month contracts even continued to remain weak and down
.
Futures spot and near-far month basis continue to repair the spot transition discount caused by the previous panic
.
The market's expectations for each month reflect the difference
between the temporary recovery of demand brought about by the short-term resumption of work and the concern about downstream demand in the later medium and long term.
At present, the national real estate market, rural housing construction, urban decoration and other major aluminum application markets have completely stopped work, and terminal demand has been temporarily basically interrupted
.
The resumption of work of middle and downstream enterprises is still impossible to complete in the short term, and it takes time for the whole society to resume normal production and life, while the production of upstream aluminum plants is proceeding steadily, and the train transportation of aluminum ingots has not been affected, and the spot inventory of aluminum ingots will still remain accumulated, and the pressure of spot inventory may be maintained until mid-March
.
In the follow-up situation, we need to pay attention to the trend of the epidemic and pay attention to when production and operation begin to recover
.
On the futures side, Shanghai aluminum gap opened low and was unable to recover the upward rush and fall, and the rebound was weak
.
After the second hit, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate
between 13200-14000.
Next week's aluminum price is mainly volatile, for reference
only.
