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As of 3 p.
m.
on Wednesday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down at 15890, down 200, or 1.
24%; The trend of aluminum prices during the day is still weak, but overall, the decline has slowed down; As the macro bearish news is gradually digested, the support of low inventory on aluminum prices may appear again, the short-term Shanghai aluminum trend or tend to stabilize, the overall fluctuation space is limited, the spot is still concerned about the breaking of the Wanliu mark, the upstream and downstream of the operation can be replenished on demand, and it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum shock is stable
.
On the macro front, the UK has a variant of the new crown virus, many countries have strengthened lockdowns and increased the state of emergency, crude oil and stock markets have fallen sharply, and the US dollar has returned to safe haven; The UK may leave the EU without a deal at the end of the year, the United States passed the stimulus package, and the dollar rebounded
.
In terms of fundamentals, Henan's environmental protection production restrictions expanded, downstream processing generally limited production and stopped production until the end of the month, the demand for aluminum ingots fell sharply, and the amount of ingots cast in aluminum plants increased; Alumina encountered environmental protection and natural gas supply tightness, continued to limit and reduce production, and Mengdong supply was tight; The output of electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, the second phase of Yunnan Shenhuo was officially put into operation, and Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan achieved production; SMM aluminum ingot stocks reported 585,000 tons on the 21st, down 0.
4 from last Thursday, market arrivals began to increase, and inventories are expected to rebound
.
The UK has a variant virus, the risk aversion before the holiday is stronger, the spot is slightly weaker overall, the import window continues to open, the import expectation is strong, the premium may be suppressed as a result, and it is recommended to operate
at the high.
After the release of short-term risk aversion, if spot procurement demand and premium stabilize and rise, pay attention to the opportunity of
bottom rebound.
