The national carbon trading market is about to go online, and the multi-channel fund card positions are quietly deployed

Original source: Securities Daily

Reporter: Zhao Ziqiang, Zhang Ying, Yao Yao, trainee reporter Ren Shibi

The much-watched national carbon emissions trading market is undergoing its final sprint.

Recently, the carbon trading concept stocks in the capital market have made frequent efforts, making investors eager to find out.

To this end, the research department of "Securities Daily" started from the perspectives of macro, market, capital, and institutions, and conducted in-depth interviews and discussions to satisfy readers.

Countdown to the launch of the national carbon emissions trading market

The national carbon emissions trading market (hereinafter referred to as the "carbon trading market") is online and has entered a countdown.

Recently, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China, Liu Youbin, stated that in accordance with the relevant requirements such as the "Measures for the Management of Carbon Emission Trading (Trial)", relevant units have been organized to complete the online transaction simulation test and the real capital test, and the various pre-trading activities are being organized.

In this regard, Huabao Securities stated that the construction of a national carbon emissions trading market is gradually advancing, and the carbon trading market will be transformed from a regional pilot stage to a national trading stage.

Zhao Yuanyuan, Investment Director of Jianhong Times, interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, said that the emergence of the carbon trading market will make resources tilt towards low-carbon industries and low-carbon technologies, reduce economic development’s dependence on traditional energy sources, and contribute to economic sustainability.

　　Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the carbon trading market will gradually cost the external environmental costs of carbon emissions within the enterprise, thereby promoting energy conservation, emission reduction and transformation and upgrading of related industries.

　　In terms of market size, Liu Youbin mentioned in his speech that China's carbon market covers more than 4 billion tons of emissions, and will become the world's largest carbon trading market covering greenhouse gas emissions.

　　Li Jin revealed that more than 2,200 key emission units in the power generation industry will be the first to be included in the national carbon trading system, and other key emission industries such as building materials, steel, and chemicals will gradually be included.

　　After the launch of China's carbon trading market, it will have different impacts on various industries.

　　Yuan Huaming believes that from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, the new energy industry is the most direct and biggest beneficiary.

　　"It should be noted that the elimination of backward production capacity will lead to an increase in industry concentration, and the impact of industry leaders is relatively weak and slow, and there is even the possibility of phased benefits.

　　More than 30% of carbon trading concept stocks are "liked" by institutions

　　"Carbon trading is essentially a financial activity, and its core is to solve the carbon emission problem through the market economy and make the ecological environment valuable.

　　According to statistics from Flushing, a reporter from Securities Daily found that since April, 8 companies in the carbon trading concept sector have been intensively visited by institutions, and the number of companies investigated by institutions accounted for 25.

　　After intensive investigations and investigations of listed companies in the carbon trading concept sector, major institutions have continued to "like" outstanding companies.

　　The reporter's statistics found that among the 31 carbon trading concept stocks, 10 stocks have been rated "buy" or "overweight" within the past 30 days, accounting for more than 30%.
Among them, Sichuan Road and Bridge, CNOOC Development, China Power Construction, Solar Energy, Yunlu Co.
, Ltd.
, Sinosteel International and other six companies during the period are optimistic about the number of ratings.

　　Liu Yan, Chairman of Anjue Assets, told a reporter from the Securities Daily, “It is estimated that in 2021, China’s carbon trading market volume may reach 250 million tons, which is three times the total volume of transactions on various pilot exchanges in 2020.
From a medium to long-term perspective, After the carbon trading market goes online, it will be beneficial to the formation of upstream and downstream carbon trading industries.
For the demand side, the increase in costs will aggravate the concentration of industry resources, which will help the industry leader to become bigger and stronger; for the supply side, additional carbon trading will be added.
Earnings will greatly improve performance, and leading companies are expected to achieve excess returns.
"

　　Referring to the future investment opportunities in the concept of carbon trading, the research team of Guotai Junan Securities stated that carbon trading will improve the profitability and cash flow of waste incineration companies, and increase the ceiling of the waste incineration industry in the long term.
First, carbon trading will bring additional benefits to waste incineration companies.
In addition to making up for the impact of the national subsidy and retreat to a certain extent, cash flow can also be improved through transactions or supporting green financial policies; secondly, in 2019, landfill and incineration of domestic waste in my country The proportions in disposal are 45% and 50% respectively.
The constraint of carbon emission reduction will further reduce the proportion of waste to landfill.
The penetration rate of the incineration process is expected to rise to a higher level, which will further increase the ceiling of the industry.
"Carbon neutrality" is good for new energy operators, and the environmental protection sector focuses on recommending leading stocks in the waste incineration sector.

　　Zou Xuyuan, a strategy analyst for the environmental protection industry of Beijing Capital Securities, pointed out that the carbon trading market is gradually approaching, and carbon emission rights trading is a manifestation of the value of the ecological environment, and it is also the core work of the "carbon peak and carbon neutral" action in the future.
Smart environmental protection based on digitalization and informatization will deeply empower the carbon market and carbon trading.
Smart environmental protection is a high-quality track and is in the rapid growth stage of the industry's life cycle.
Related companies will enjoy the market's explosive dividends.

　　More than 40% of carbon trading concept stocks have outperformed the market since the second quarter

　　Continuously stimulated by news related to the carbon trading field, the carbon trading sector has fluctuated upward since April.
As of the close of this Friday (June 4), the Oriental Wealth Carbon Trading Index has risen by 1.
84%, reaching a maximum of 1,248.
17 points during the period.
Although the carbon trading index has fallen since May 28, it has not substantially affected the upward trend.

　　In terms of individual stocks, Flush data shows that since April, as of the close of this Friday, 15 of the 31 stocks in the carbon trading sector have achieved gains during the period, and 13 stocks have outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index (up 4.
13%) over the same period, accounting for Reach 41.
94%.

　　Among them, 4 stocks including Yueyang Forestry Paper, Huayin Power, Sinosteel International, and Changyuan Power performed strongly, with cumulative gains of 58.
70%, 56.
39%, 46.
74%, and 43.
44% respectively; Yunlu, Mindong Power, Huazi Six stocks, including Technology, Sichuan Road and Bridge, Juhua, and Dezhan Health, all rose by more than 10%; in addition, two stocks including Huayin Power and Changyuan Power had the highest daily limit during this period, with daily daily limits of 10 and 9 days respectively.
Today, Yueyang Forest Paper, Sinosteel International, and Mindong Electric have daily limit of 6 days.

　　Regarding the market performance of the carbon trading sector since the second quarter, Liu Youhua, research director of private equity rankings, analyzed to the "Securities Daily" reporter: "Since April, the carbon trading sector has continued the hot trend of the first quarter, and the sector index has exceeded a new high this year.
From the logic behind it, the focus of investment in the carbon trading sector is on clean energy and related material research and development.
Superimposed policy stimulus has led to a sharp rise in the sector index since April.
"

　　Long Hao, chairman of Jinding Assets, who was interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily, said, “According to national arrangements, the national carbon emission trading system will be launched soon, which has stimulated the rise of carbon trading-related sectors.
Especially since June, with the national carbon The launch of the emission trading system is approaching, and the related photovoltaic, wind power and other clean energy sectors are rising in rotation.
"

　　From the perspective of the total market value, the latest market value of the Flush Carbon Trading sector reached 589.
814 billion yuan, and the average total market value of 31 stocks was 18.
724 billion yuan.
Among them, two stocks have a total market value of more than 50 billion yuan.
China Power Construction ranks first with a total market value of 59.
513 billion yuan.
Shenzhen Energy follows closely with a total market value of 51.
523 billion yuan.
In addition, Yunlu Aluminum and Datang Power , State Grid Yingda, Sichuan Road and Bridge, Changyuan Power, Juhua, CNOOC Development, Zhongtai Chemical and Financial Street, etc.
, have a total market value of more than 20 billion yuan.

　　From the perspective of valuation, in the carbon trading sector, 11 stocks have the latest P/E ratio below 20 times, including Sinosteel International, Solar Energy and CNOOC Development.

　　Liu Youhua analyzed to reporters: “From the perspective of market value, the carbon trading sector generally has a small market value, and is dominated by medium-valued stocks.
At present, the total market value of the entire sector is less than 600 billion yuan.
From the perspective of valuation, after the sector has risen sharply, Some stocks have high valuations and are not cheap.
There is pressure for short-term corrections.
In the medium and long term, individual stocks need to be selected.
In comparison, the two areas of clean energy and new materials in carbon trading are the most imaginative.
"

　　Driven by various factors, the carbon trading sector is entering an upward cycle in an all-round way.
Long Hao said: "Especially some leading new energy power generation companies, including renewable energy (wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower and biomass energy, etc.
), waste disposal (waste incineration and landfill) stock prices may double.
, It is recommended that investors pay attention to energy storage and transmission enterprises while paying attention to enterprises in the energy acquisition industry, including those related to fuel transformation (new energy vehicles and charging stations), and those related to carbon monitoring will also benefit from the concept of carbon trading for a long time.
Especially when carbon trading-related companies are included in the carbon trading system, they will have greater investment value.
"

　　“At present, my country has become one of the largest carbon trading markets in the world.
Although carbon trading prices are generally low, as companies in the steel, cement, petroleum, chemical, building materials, paper, non-ferrous metals, and civil aviation industries are included, During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the development potential of my country's carbon emission trading rights market will be very huge.
" Long Hao further introduced.

　　Multi-channel funds pursue carbon trading concept stocks

　　"Recently, the carbon trading sector has entered an upward cycle in an all-round way, mainly driven by funds, and short-term speculation is relatively strong.
For related concept stocks, we should start from the fundamentals and choose new energy companies with good performance.
Carbon trading as a catalyst will form a long-term impact on the sector.
Good support.
" Said Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin Wealth Investment Fund who was interviewed by a reporter from Securities Daily.

　　According to Flush statistics, a reporter from the Securities Daily found that in the four trading days since June, the four carbon trading concept stocks including China Power Construction, CNOOC Development, National Inspection and Quarantine Group, and Villeli all showed a net inflow of large order funds.
The total net inflow of funds during the period was 42.
219 million yuan.

　　At the same time, Beijing Capital, which has received much attention, is also increasing its position in carbon trading concept stocks.

　　Since June, five concept stocks including Sichuan Road and Bridge, Juhua, GCL Energy, CNOOC Development, and Datang Power have received a total net purchase of 88.
65 million yuan from Beijing Capital during the period.
Among them, CNOOC development is favored by funds.
Not only is it popular with market funds, but it has also been increased by foreign capital, becoming a stock jointly held by the two funds.

　　Regarding investment opportunities in the carbon trading sector, Pan Shaogan, general manager of China Investment Liying Assets, told the reporter of Securities Daily that striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is the most certain in the A-share market.
One of the industry tracks with rapid development in the medium and long term.
Moreover, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to maintain rapid growth since last year, and the upstream and downstream industrial chains have been tangibly supported.
Under the conditions of long-term policy support, high performance growth in the medium term, and short-term market rotation, they continue to bargain.
Grasping the opportunities of related stocks is still the best policy.

　　"Although the first batch of national carbon market transactions included only 2,225 power generation companies, when the future carbon market construction gradually matures, it will eventually cover eight major industries, including power generation, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, papermaking, and aviation.
"Huabao Securities said.

　　For high-carbon emission industries such as public utilities, steel, building materials, transportation, and chemicals, whether or not they can benefit from carbon trading depends on the company's ability to reduce carbon emissions.
Analysts believe that industry leaders generally have both production capacity and technological advantages, and usually have higher emission reduction capabilities, and therefore will relatively benefit from the carbon trading market.

　　Tong Diyi, general manager of Longying Fortune Assets, also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that there are many carbon trading concept stocks, some of which hold equity in local carbon emission trading companies, and some have some technological accumulation in carbon capture and other aspects.
It also involves some environmental protection and new energy power generation companies.
Entering June, as the time node approaches, some trading opportunities may appear again.
In the long run, the extent to which it can be reflected in the company's development and performance requires further observation.

　　In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, Sun Enxiang, a researcher of the private equity row net, said that the carbon trading market is about to open, which is good for the development of low-carbon industries represented by new energy.
On the one hand, new energy companies can obtain additional income through carbon emissions trading to improve Performance, on the other hand, has a significant boost to the enthusiasm for new energy installations.