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This week, aluminum prices first fell and then rose, Lun aluminum 1800 temporarily supported, Shanghai aluminum up test 14,000; lack of actual benefits, aluminum price rebound momentum weakened, alumina fell endlessly dragged down, is expected to have a risk of falling, pay attention to next week's Sino-US trade negotiations; next week Lun aluminum focus on 1780-1850, Shanghai aluminum 1.
36-14,000, East China spot aluminum 1.
36-13,900, range operation
.
The macro favorable superimposed on the improvement of the fundamentals is expected to make Shanghai aluminum maintain a strong short-term position, and under the dual stimulation of production reduction disturbance and consumption recovery, the destocking process of aluminum ingots has started
again.
The cost side of alumina rebound is weak, the price of pre-baked anode continues to decline, the electrolytic aluminum industry maintains a profit cycle, objectively favorable to the release of new production capacity and the recovery of suspended production capacity, but the impact of resumption of production takes time to reflect, and will not cause a significant increase in supply in the short term
.
The short-term bullish logic is still supported, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and it is not recommended to chase the long at the
current point.
In terms of inventory, the latest inventory of LME aluminum was 918925 tons, down 3450 tons from the previous trading day; The aluminum warehouse receipt of the previous period was 137715 tons, a decrease of 579 tons
from the previous trading day.
In terms of spot, the transaction price of Shanghai Wuxi market is between 14380-14400 yuan / ton, the flat water to the premium of the plate is 30-40 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is around
14390-14410 yuan / ton.
On September 5, the volume of shipments in many places increased, and SMM statistics counted that the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
006 million tons, down 27,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Logic: Loose liquidity expectations have pushed metal prices to rebound, but the latest release of electrolytic aluminum destocking speed is not outstanding, aluminum prices show a volatile trend
.
At present, the contradiction of the electrolytic aluminum market has changed to resume production and consumption who comes first, from the current aluminum ingot destocking and aluminum rod inventory performance, consumption has not yet improved in an all-round way
.
Shandong's affected production capacity has partially recovered, but it will take time for more than half of the production capacity to recover; The affected production capacity in Xinjiang is expected to resume at the end of September, earlier than expected, but it cannot make up for the lack
of output in September.
Over time, consumption still has room for improvement, and destocking will continue, but before the data is confirmed, aluminum prices are difficult to perform well, mainly high
shocks.
