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The domestic methanol market is in a situation of oversupply, but production is at a loss.
With cost support and supply and demand suppressed, it is expected that the methanol 2109 contract will continue to oscillate in the future
.
Since late June, the methanol 2109 contract has ushered in a slight rebound after the completion of the W bottom form, rising from 2,430 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton
.
However, due to methanol's own weak fundamentals, futures prices continued to rise weakly
Domestic and foreign production capacity has been released one after another
Recently, the phenomenon of high methanol premiums at domestic ports has basically disappeared.
There are two main reasons behind the return of valuation: First, after the spring maintenance of methanol plants, the supply of methanol in the Mainland has gradually increased, which has led to a decline in the spot price in the Mainland and the opening of the port arbitrage window.
Some low-priced mainland sources hit the port market
Second, as the methanol plants in Europe, America and Iran resume production one after another, external production capacity is gradually released, which in turn leads to the end of the destocking phase of methanol at domestic ports and the start of the accumulation cycle
.
As of mid-June, East China and South China had reached 310,000 tons of methanol in Hong Kong weekly, the first time it exceeded 300,000 tons in nearly six weeks
Domestic and foreign output has increased, and the port methanol price has fallen to 2500 yuan/ton, a record low in the past one month, and the price gap with the mainland is also shrinking
.
Downstream demand enters off-season
The formaldehyde industry, which is the traditional downstream demand for methanol, is in the off-season during the southern rainy season.
The weakening of sheet demand has gradually reduced the operating rate of formaldehyde plants
In the emerging field of methanol consumption, the methanol-to-olefins unit is undergoing inspections, which has led to a decline in the operating rate of olefin units
.
As of the end of mid-June, the olefin plant operating rate has dropped from the previous high of 90% to 80%
The cost support effect is still there
The current domestic coal supply tightening and high prices are still supporting methanol
.
Calculated by manufacturing costs, as of June 25, the manufacturing cost of Northwest Coal-to-Methanol was RMB 2701.
29/ton, while the contract price of methanol 2109 was RMB 2591/ton.
The futures disk was at a loss with a profit margin of -4.
08%; Shandong Coal-based The manufacturing cost of methanol is RMB 2738.
