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Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2209 closed at 18165, down 80, and LME aluminum closed at 2414, down 36; Macro: Eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs for July were 49.
8% and 52.
2%, respectively, slowing better than expected; The three Fed policymakers unanimously said on Tuesday that raising rates would at least bring inflation down, and that market expectations for a halt to aggressive rate hikes were inaccurate
.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in Guangxi slowed down, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production in July was less than expected
.
However, if the aluminum price rebounds sharply, the resumption of production is likely to accelerate again, which is a major reason
for restricting the upward trend of aluminum prices.
On the demand side, inventory pressure has gradually emerged, and the downstream operating rate has also shown a slight decline
.
Downstream pessimism has not improved, procurement is just demand-based, the acceptance of aluminum price rebound is not high, if aluminum prices rise, downstream procurement behavior will turn to wait and see
.
From the terminal point of view, the increase in demand for automobiles and infrastructure covers the reduction of real estate, which is difficult to form a strong drive, so it is expected that the order situation converted to the processing end will not be significantly improved, and the lack of upward driving for aluminum prices is another major reason
why aluminum prices are difficult to turn upward.
Aluminum fundamentals are poor, while manufacturing activities in various countries continue to slow, Fed officials' speeches boost interest rate hike expectations, commodity rebound is blocked, and the medium and long-term downward trend remains unchanged, it is recommended to wait
and see.
