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On Monday, the main 2103 contract of Shanghai copper rushed up and fluctuated, with the highest 59030 yuan / ton and the lowest 58120 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 58790 yuan / ton, up 1.
00% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fluctuated at a high level, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the 3-month London copper was reported at $7990 / ton, up 0.
09%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The US non-farm payrolls increased by 49,000 in January, less than the expected increase of 105,000
.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that without sufficient policy support, the U.
S.
labor market may not recover
until 2025.
(3) On February 5, China's copper concentrate inventory was 552,000 tons, down 27,000 tons weekly, down for three consecutive weeks; copper ore processing fee TC was 40.
1 US dollars / dry ton, down 3.
1 US dollars / dry ton weekly, a new low
since November 2011.
(4) On February 4, China's spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 148,800 tons, an increase of 05,300 tons
from February 1.
Spot analysis: On February 8, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58830-59000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58915 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 915 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that holders raised prices, some bargain hunting, and weak downstream consumption inhibited transaction performance
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 33,616 tons, an increase of 2,985 tons per day; On February 5, LME copper stocks stood at 76,550 tonnes, up 2,050 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of February 5, the previous Shanghai copper inventory was reported at 68,588 tons, a weekly increase of 2,023 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract were 55968 lots, minus 3954 lots per day, short positions were 63191 lots, daily minus 2510 lots, net short positions were 7223 lots, daily increase of 1444 lots, long and short were reduced, net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: On February 8, Shanghai copper 2103 rushed high and oscillated
.
The US non-farm payrolls data for January was less than expected, and the US dollar index fell under pressure; In addition, Biden's $1.
9 trillion aid package has also made progress, which is expected to be passed by Congress in the coming weeks, which is positive for risk sentiment
.
Domestic copper mine supply maintained a tight pattern, copper ore processing fees TC continued to be reduced, and copper smelting costs were high; At present, domestic copper inventories are at a historical low, and the market is optimistic about post-holiday demand expectations, supporting the recovery of copper prices at a low level
.
Technically, the daily MACD green column contraction of the Shanghai copper 2103 contract, focusing on the resistance of the 59300 mark, is expected to be strong in
the short term.
