The market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and aluminum shows a stable and volatile trend

In terms of the external market, the overnight US and Russian presidential talks did not release news, the market expected that the talks may not go well, and Lun aluminum once soared
.
Overnight, Lun aluminum rushed back down to close Xiaoyang, and opened slightly lower today
.

On the macro front, according to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.
7% year-on-year, unchanged from the expected value of 6.
7%, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 6.
8%
year-on-year.
China's second-quarter GDP was 1.
8% month-on-month, 1.
6% expected, and 1.
4%
in the first quarter.
In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 6.
8% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 6.
7%, and also increased by 6.
8%
in the same period last year.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that China's industrial added value above designated size rose 6% year-on-year in June, lower than the expected 6.
5%, down 0.
8 percentage points from May and up 0.
36%
month-on-month.
From January to June, the added value of China's industries above designated size increased by 6.
7% year-on-year, 6.
8% expected, and 6.
9%
in the previous month.
The added value of China's industries above designated size fell short of market expectations
for the fourth consecutive month.
Macroeconomic data performed poorly, non-ferrous metals came under pressure, and the news was bearish
.

On the supply side, the starting capacity increased slightly to 37.
106 million tons, and policy and capital factors restricted the commissioning of new production capacity; cost side: alumina stabilized and rebounded, coal prices fluctuated at a high level, costs rebounded slightly, and the industry as a whole was in a loss stage
.

In terms of stocks, the LME bank increased slightly to 1.
145 million tons, down to 917,700 tons in the previous period, and the social bank fell to 1.
765 million tons, and the domestic destocking efforts weakened
.

Strengthened by the support of the "Blue Sky Defense Plan", of which the Fenwei Plain was also included in the heating season production restriction this year, and aluminum prices were bearish
in the trade war interference.
In addition, environmental protection problems have led to tight domestic bauxite supply, limiting alumina production, alumina prices have begun to stabilize, and the supporting role of cost has begun to appear
.
As traders' risk sentiment eases, electrolytic aluminum is under the support of policies, and the industry is in a loss stage, and it already has a margin of safety for short-term
longs.
It is expected that the aluminum price in the future market will show a stable and volatile trend
.