The market wait-and-see sentiment is expected to renew in the short term of Shanghai aluminum

Market focus: On Friday, Trump in the United States attacked the Fed again, hoping that the Fed would cut interest rates by another 100 basis points, and the Fed should stop quantitative tightening
.
Mexico decided to launch an anti-dumping investigation
into imported aluminum discs originating in China.
Statistics show that Mexico imported 4,125 tons (US$12.
91 million) of aluminum discs in 2018, of which 2,124 tons (US$6.
07 million) were imported
from China.
Indonesian bauxite producer PT.
Mineral Makmur Sejahtera plans to apply for bauxite export quotas
.
The company plans to apply for an export quota of 2 million tons of bauxite, in addition to a new alumina refinery
with an annual capacity of 1.
5 million tons.
China's passenger car sales in July were 1.
53 million units, down 3.
9%
y/y.

Spot analysis: On August 12, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13930-13970 yuan / ton, and the average price was 13950 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
In the morning, the shippers shipped OK, with the rise of aluminum, the market wait-and-see mood restarted, because of the optimism of the future market, the holders began to sell at a high price, shipments converged, but the middleman received the goods enthusiastically increased, began to actively receive goods, the market performance received more and less, the actual transaction was poor
.
Because the shippers shipped less, and the downstream was also afraid of heights, there was not much
procurement.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 137417 tons, a daily decrease of 1896 tons; On August 9, LME aluminum stocks were 998,250 tons, a daily decrease of 5,975 tons
.
As of the week ended August 9, the stock of copper cathode on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 391467 tons, down 12,193 tons
per week.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 90178 lots, a daily increase of 16408 lots, a short position of 107861 lots, a daily increase of 10327 lots, a net short position of 17683 lots, a daily decrease of 6081 lots, a large increase in long and short positions, and a decrease
in net short.

On August 12, the main 1910 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose
sharply.
Macro market sentiment has eased, attention gradually turned to this week's economic data, while the dollar index weakened, coupled with the continued deteriorating of midstream aluminum inventories, increased support for aluminum prices, but upstream alumina prices continued to decline, and downstream demand was weak, putting some pressure
on aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, aluminum rose in the morning, the market wait-and-see mood revived, because of the optimism about the future market, holders began to sell at a high price, but the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods was obviously high, and began to actively receive goods, the market performance received more and less, the actual transaction was poor, and the downstream was also afraid of heights
.
Technically, the holding volume of Shanghai's main 1910 contract has increased significantly, and the inflow of funds has boosted the rise, and it is expected that there will be a correction
in the short term.