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Last week, Shanghai copper first rose and then declined, and the impact of geopolitics and the US dollar index slipped near the weekend, and the convergence of weekly gains entered a range shock
.
The central bank cut interest rates again during the week, coupled with domestic policies to stimulate small and medium-sized enterprises, market confidence has been boosted, Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate strongly in the early part of the week, but in the later period, with the impact of the Syrian-Turkish conflict and the strong US economy, risk aversion pushed up the dollar index to suppress the copper market
.
At present, the domestic epidemic situation is still continuing, and the short-term Shanghai copper is affected by market confidence to support the strong recovery space, but more momentum will be pinned on the domestic refined copper demand and policy stimulation after the start of construction, while the medium and long-term copper price will continue to be under pressure due to the economic impact, and the V-shaped reversal is limited
.
It is expected that the bottom of the Shanghai copper range will be mainly volatile next week, and the bottom of the downstream range can be properly considered for stocking, and the main range of Shanghai copper is 4.
58-47,000
.
Last week, the trend of London aluminum fluctuated and stabilized, and it is expected that it is difficult to recover sharply under the background of the strengthening of the US index; The short-term expected shock pattern is difficult to change, and the following attention is paid to the 1700 mark support, and it is expected that the probability of stability next week is large
.
In terms of the US dollar, the manufacturing and other economic data performed brightly, and the economic prosperity index of the euro area was weakened by Germany, which was positive for the US dollar index to continue to update high, approaching the 100 yuan mark, and putting pressure on copper on London; In the short term, as the policy benefits continue to be digested, the rebound momentum has converged
.
In terms of the market, most of the spot market has resumed work last week, and with the change of month, the market quotation has been transferred to the water across the board; Due to financial pressure, the holders continue to adjust the price and sell the goods, and the copper discount is now around
180 yuan.
The willingness to receive goods downstream is low, and a small number of traders entered the market on Friday with the decline of the market, and the transaction was concentrated in the flat water copper at the price difference, and the market oversupply situation was obvious, and the transaction was light
.
Stocks: 111,000 tons in Shanghai, 44.
7 tons in Wuxi, 125,000 tons in Hangzhou, 209,000 tons in Gongyi, 258,000 tons in Nanhai, 57,000 tons in Tianjin, 12,000 tons in Linyi, 11,000 tons in Chongqing, and a total of 1.
23 million tons
of aluminum ingots in the place of consumption.
In the scrap market, copper prices rose first and then declined last week, and the weekly increase converged into range-bound
.
The main force of Shanghai copper mainly runs around 45800-46500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of bright copper in the market is 42200-42500 yuan / ton
.
The price difference of refined waste is about 1250 yuan, and downstream enterprises in the market have resumed work one after another as required, and the supply of scrap copper in circulation in the market is in short supply
.
Market forecast, last week's Shanghai copper first rose and then declined, near the weekend due to the influence of geopolitics and the dollar index has slipped, convergence weekly gains into range shock
.
The central bank cut interest rates again during the week, superimposed on domestic policies to stimulate small and medium-sized enterprises, market confidence has been boosted, Shanghai copper in the early part of the week continued to fluctuate strongly, but in the later period, with the impact of the Syrian-Turkish conflict and the strong US economy, risk aversion pushed up the US dollar index to suppress copper prices, the current domestic epidemic is still continuing, short-term Shanghai copper is affected by market confidence to support strong strength There is still room for recovery, but more momentum or will be pinned on the demand for refined copper and policy stimulation after the start of domestic construction, and medium and long-term copper prices will continue to be under pressure due to economic impact.
The V-shaped reversal force is limited
.
It is expected that next week's Shanghai copper range support bottom shock is the mainstay, downstream at the bottom of the range can be properly considered stocking, Shanghai copper main range of 4.
58-47,000, London copper 5700-5850 US dollars
.
