The market supply pressure is not large, and Liansu rebounded slightly

News: In October, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 3.
0%
year-on-year.
Among them, the crude oil processing volume was 57.
84 million tons, an increase of 9.
2%.

ethylene production was 1.
74 million tons, an increase of 4.
2%; 2.
279 million automobiles fell by 2.
1%, and from January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 5.
6%
year-on-year.
Among them, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 4.
0%
year-on-year.
From January to October 2019, investment in chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing increased by 6.
6%
year-on-year.

Last week, the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises was +2.
6%
week-on-week.
This week, enterprises in North China have resumed production one after another due to production restrictions and shutdowns, and the operating rate has increased slightly, with the operating rate +3.
1%
week-on-week.
Agricultural film starts in South China fell slightly, with the operating rate -1.
5%
week-on-week.
Individual enterprises in the northwest region increased their orders for mulch film, and the operating rate increased relatively much, with the operating rate +2.
6%
week-on-week.

Spot market: the domestic polyethylene market is mixed, the price of the main regional sales company is more stable, the linear futures are slightly upward, the business attitude is cautious, the offer is mixed, and the real market is more negotiable
.
As of noon, the price in the North China market fluctuated by 50 yuan / ton; The East China market is temporarily stable; The South China market was about 100 yuan / ton lower
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipt reported 1161 lots, intraday +240 lots; It is in the low-to-middle historical zone
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 167753 lots, -5819 lots, short positions are 190197 lots, -3070 lots, net positions are -22444 lots, net short increases
.

Summary: China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and after entering late October, the demand for plastic home film is expected to gradually recover, the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises has rebounded, and PE inventories are still in the low area, indicating that the market supply pressure is not large, which has some support for LLDPE, however, the International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate in 2019 to 3%, the growth rate was the lowest in 10 years, which hit market confidence, and the second round of environmental protection inspections opened, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, These factors are expected to suppress
LLDPE.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors reduce their holdings in the hands of short orders and put them in their pockets
.