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Under the background that the supply and demand structure is still weak, domestic rubber futures in April showed a trend of weak oscillation
.
Since the domestic epidemic cannot be ended in the short term, in the case of weak demand and increasing supply pressure, the bottom of rubber prices is expected to continue
in the future.
On the macro level, domestic public health events have had a wide impact, affecting the supply, circulation and sales of finished products.
Internationally, the global economic growth rate is expected to be
lowered.
On the supply side, the recent local light rain in the Thai production area has little impact on rubber tapping, but the production of new rubber is low, and its northeast production is gradually released, according to Reuters data, the country's rainfall is expected to increase in the next two weeks, of which the southern rainfall will reach an average of about 10mm per day, or affect glue output; The weather in Vietnam's main producing areas is good, and the rubber tapping is smooth, but the output is not yet half; China's production areas: Yunnan has been fully cut, the output is normal, the postponement of cutting in Hainan production area is slightly more than expected, it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent phenological conditions, especially powdery mildew, the market is expected to open the cutting in mid-May will increase
significantly.
In terms of demand, the arrival of the off-season in the middle of the year, coupled with the continuous impact of public health incidents, the difficulty of rubber out of storage in Shanghai and other places, the circulation of raw materials and finished products in many places in China has been blocked, and export demand has declined and it is difficult to recover in the short term; Heavy-duty truck distribution sales data show that all three major demand have weakened significantly; The slowdown in domestic and foreign demand has led to heavy inventory of finished products of tire companies, high pressure to destock, affected by the start of enterprises, and the May Day holiday is approaching, and the operating rate is expected to decline
.
In terms of inventory, data show that as of April 25, 2021, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 79,300 tons, down 03,500 tons from last week and 4.
27% from the previous month; Natural rubber stocks outside the bonded zone were 297,100 tons, down 09,700 tons from last week and 3.
17%
month-on-month.
Among them, the destocking speed of dark rubber is slightly faster, and the market is expected to be affected by the slowdown in demand, and the destocking speed of tianjiao will continue to slow down
in the second quarter.
Forecast for the future: the expectation of a downward revision of economic growth coupled with the continuous impact of public health events, slowing demand and blocking the circulation system in many places, difficulties in outbound and delivery, pressure on spot finished products continues to increase, and enterprise starts are obviously suppressed
.
Although it is still in the low production period of new rubber, the output is also in a slow rising period, and the downstream demand is limited and the inventory is high, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to fluctuate
weakly in the future.
