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On Tuesday morning, the main force of Shanghai aluminum opened at 12130 yuan / ton, and the bulls continued to enter before the afternoon, the high of aluminum prices touched 12245 yuan / ton, and then the long and short game under the narrow range of Shanghai aluminum shock, the end of the session part of the short-term bulls took profits, bears took advantage of the trend to enter, aluminum prices fell under pressure, closing at 12205 yuan / ton
.
At present, the long-short game is intensifying, the moving average is gradually approaching, and it is expected that short-term Shanghai aluminum will maintain range volatility
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1632 yuan / ton in the morning, and the trend of London aluminum in the Asian session basically followed the domestic Shanghai aluminum, and the trading center continued to move upward, once breaking through the 20-day support high to record 1642 US dollars / ton, entering the European trading session long and short around the daily moving average to compete, Lun aluminum narrow range
.
In terms of the market, the volume of aluminum released before noon rose by 11 points to 12480 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 12570-12590 yuan / ton, the monthly premium is 100-120 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 12560-12570 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 12590-12600 yuan / ton
.
Wuxi stable shipments, Shanghai supply is tight, the aluminum fell overnight in the month and then rebounded, middlemen are willing to replenish at low prices, downstream on-demand procurement, the overall transaction is warmer than yesterday, and concentrated on traders
.
The high level of aluminum fluctuated in the afternoon of the month, Shanghai holders were reluctant to sell, middlemen were difficult to find a source, and the Wuxi market was still active in the afternoon, with a transaction concentration of 12570-12580 yuan / ton
.
In terms of news, Goldman Sachs released the latest estimate of base metal prices in 2017 and 2018, with aluminum prices of $1,500 per ton in 2017 and $1,500 in 2018
.
Goldman Sachs believes that China's demand momentum will be moderate in the second half of 2016, but still relatively strong, so Goldman Sachs expects a persistent supply gap in the metal market in the second half of the year, and believes that strong structural demand is not the main driving force, and the recent strength of metal prices is a temporary phenomenon
.
Strong demand in China is positive for aluminum prices
.
On the whole, in the off-season of consumption, aluminum demand is weak, domestic aluminum enterprises resume production, putting pressure on aluminum prices, short-term long and short forces balance, downward momentum continues to weaken, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will continue to fluctuate trend, operating range 12000-12500
.
