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This week, the London aluminum market was generally volatile and higher
.
Affected by the setback of US President Trump's medical reform plan at the beginning of the week, commodity markets, including crude oil, closed lower, and London aluminum was dragged down, but the resistance performance was better than that of surrounding metals
.
Subsequently, several aluminum giants in the G20 plan to take measures against China's huge aluminum production, coupled with the US Republican Party's statement that it will continue to support Trump's policy and favorable US economic data, and other factors drove Lun Aluminum all the way up, reaching a maximum of $1980, a new high
since 2014.
From a technical point of view, the KD indicator was driven upward by the rise of Lun aluminum this week, and there were signs of passivation after rising above 80, and it formed a dead cross downward near the weekend, or will announce the end of the recent strong Lun aluminum
.
At present, the trend of Lun aluminum is above the moving averages of various roads, and the close of the past half month has basically closed the white line, and the market has the need
for price adjustment.
It is expected that the strength of London aluminum next week may come to an end, or it will begin to weaken at the high, mainly in the 1930-1980 range of weak oscillations
.
Pay attention to the impact
of the volatility of the US dollar index on Lun Aluminum.
This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong shock pattern
.
Dragged down by the domestic black plunge at the beginning of the week, Shanghai aluminum once fell to the 13545 yuan line, and then the bulls began to enter the bottom, and Shanghai aluminum showed strong support below, returning to the 13600 yuan line
.
Subsequently, with the shortage of funds at the end of the quarter, short-term bears gradually closed their positions and left the market, and Shanghai aluminum rose steadily
.
Then near the weekend, there were rumors of a new round of national electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the fermentation of the news made Shanghai aluminum rise again to 14,000 yuan
.
The performance of Shanghai aluminum this week is obviously weaker than that of Lun aluminum, and the long-term range shock has made Shanghai aluminum accumulate 5 short-term averages in the range of 13600-13900 yuan, coupled with obvious signs of exit of funds near the end of the month and unfavorable fundamentals have also made the upside of Shanghai aluminum difficult
.
The new round of rumors of capacity removal over the weekend is a relatively rare positive in recent times, although it is only a rumor, but the bulls have also seized the opportunity to take advantage of the counterattack
.
It's just that whether this rumor can break through the current pressure of 14,000 yuan is still in doubt
.
After all, according to the monitoring of social stocks on March 30, aluminum ingot stocks still continue to grow
.
Comprehensive analysis, next week Shanghai aluminum or will fluctuate in the range of 13800-14300 yuan, and the lower moving average will form a better support
.
However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the 14,000 yuan line of the previous long-short game can form a breakthrough, if the breakthrough is unsuccessful, Shanghai aluminum may return to the 20-day moving average to find support
.
