The market is uncertain and the short-term fluctuation of Shanghai copper is running

On the macro front, a series of better-than-expected announcements from the United States, such as the final PMI value of the services industry and the number of factory orders, coupled with the hawkish attitude of Fed officials to the market in recent days, have made the dollar recover
for two consecutive days.
In addition, U.
S.
crude oil inventories soared, imports hit a two-year high, U.
S.
oil fell to $90, but natural gas prices soared 10%.

At present, energy problems still plague countries
such as Europe and the United States from time to time.

In terms of spot, the premium of the spot market showed a collapse state, mainly due to the continuous flow of imported goods into the domestic market, and the holders who bought cash futures at about 400 yuan / ton in the early stage have dumped their goods for cash, and the market panic has risen to the bottom
.
Morning market flat water copper also began to report at the premium of 180 yuan / ton, helpless market inquirers few, the holder of the goods to the mood of cash out of the premium quickly came to below 100 yuan, a small amount of 60 yuan / ton of goods outflow after buyers into the market to buy, some holders want to raise the price around 100 yuan
.
The price difference between good copper and flat water copper stabilized at 20 yuan / ton, and the overall premium was reported to 80-120 yuan / ton
.
The price of wet copper rose to about 20 yuan / ton, but the market was not prosperous, and the overall premium was reported to 20-50 yuan / ton
under the downstream wait-and-see mood.

On the supply side, according to Mysteel, Codelco gradually resumed construction of a number of projects at the beginning of the week, after being suspended
due to safety incidents.
MMG withdrew its original Las Bambas' 2022 production guidance and will be re-evaluated as operations were suspended for more than 50 days in the second quarter due to protest road jams, and community negotiations are still ongoing, but shipments are normal
.
Glencore once again lowered its 2022 copper production target by 50,000 tons, mainly due to the epidemic and geological impacts
.
In general, although there are still interference factors in overseas mine supply, combined with the still high copper concentrate port inventory, it is expected that mine supply will remain relatively abundant this week, and TC prices may continue to recover
slightly as overseas interference factors gradually recede.

In terms of consumption, domestic policies continue to improve, home appliances to the countryside, new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy time extension, accelerate the construction of charging facilities and other measures are accelerating the recovery of market consumption, the good policy still boosts the market, but because the third quarter is the off-season for copper demand, so the real demand recovery may need to wait until the turn of
the third and fourth quarters.
On the other hand, the continuous interest rate hikes of European and American central banks make it difficult for the market to be optimistic about the future demand outlook, so it is difficult to form a very effective support
for prices in terms of overall demand at present.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks fell by 0.
07 million tonnes to 130,300 tonnes
.
SHFE stocks fell 0.
47 million tonnes to 51,500 tonnes
.

Overall, the recent import of copper into the domestic market, the quotation of premium water has fallen sharply, although the macro bearish factors have been digested before, but the recent hawkish speech of Fed officials is also more intensive, so in the short term it is still dominated by a wait-and-see attitude
.