The market is once again in a pessimistic rubber range

The macro is the sea, commodities are ships, and economic growth is driven by demand; At present, the global economy is still facing many difficulties, and it is not appropriate to underestimate the impact of
macro changes on commodity prices.
Thai raw materials stabilized and recovered in the short term, and the price of cup glue was 33 baht and the price of glue was 39 baht
.
Thailand's month-on-month increase in exports in July was in line with the expectation of increased supply, while raw material prices fell, processing profits repaired, coupled with the withdrawal of export restrictions by the three countries, it is expected that imports will increase in the later period, and domestic may change from destocking to accumulation
.
It is reported that the US dollar treasury in the bonded zone has been seriously blocked recently, and there are 50,000 tons
of accumulated goods on the port.
At present, there are 5 trading days left before August 31, and the 09 contract holds 58,000 hands unilaterally, compared with 38,000 hands in the same period last year, indicating that the pressure of moving positions this year is still large, and it is expected that the long-short game will intensify
in the next few trading days.
It is recommended that the hedging ratio be maintained at or above 100%; The trend short RU2001 strategy continues to hold, with a yield of 5%, and the Buddhist system waits for the 09 hole card
.

News: Thailand's exports of natural rubber in July 2019 were 335,400 tons (including latex and mixed rubber), up 11,700 tons, or 3.
61%, and down 16.
7%
year-on-year.
Among them, the export of mixed rubber was 48,400 tons, up 56% month-on-month and down 54% year-on-year; The export volume of dry rubber was 207,800 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons, or 5.
57%; Latex exports were 79,200 tons, up 06,600 tons, or 9.
1%,
from the previous month.

Futures quotes: RU2001 quotes 11385 (-15), RU1909 quotes 10355 (-10); NR2002 offer 9815 (-60), NR2005 offer 10010 (-40); TOCOM-RSS3# Latest Offer 165.
8 (-2.
4); SICOM-20# Latest Offer 132(-)
.
Monthly and cross-variety spreads: RU 1-9 spreads 1045 (15); NR 02-05 spread-195 (-25); RU-NR main spread 1570 (45); NR/SICOM ratio 75.
08(-).

Tianjiao spot price: SCR5 full latex (Shanghai) quotation 10300 (0), Thai 3 tobacco tablet glue (Shanghai) quotation 12900 (0), Vietnam 3L (Shanghai) quotation 10700 (0); RMB Thai mix quotation 10650-10700 (-50), Yunnan domestic No.
20 rubber quotation 10550 (0), Yunnan 9710 quotation 10700 (0); Thailand STR20-CIF USD quote 1335 (0), Thailand STR20 Hybrid-CIF USD quote 1345 (0), Thailand STR20-CIF RMB bonded quote 9421 (11).

Futures current spread: SCR5 full latex-RU main basis -1085 (50), RMB Thai mix-RU main basis -710 (25), domestic No.
20-NR main basis 735 (95), 9710-NR main basis 885 (95), RMB Thai mix-NR main basis 860 (70), STR20 internal and external price difference -20 (-10).

Synthetic gum spot price: butadiene 10200 (0), cis-butadiene Shanghai 10700 (0), butylbenzene (1502) Shandong 10450 (-50).

Full latex-cis-butane spread-400(0), full latex-butylbenzene (1502)-150(50).

Raw material price: Hainan glue 10700 (0), Yunnan glue 9500 (0), Yunnan glue block 9400 (100), Thai Hat Yai white tablets 39.
47 (0.
07).

Inventory and operating rate: the total inventory in the previous period was 459,000 tons (0.
6); Registered warehouse receipts 417,000 tons (-0.
23).

The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 58.
76% (7.
15), and the operating rate of all-steel tires was 61.
23% (11.
32).