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The main force of Shanghai aluminum closed at 18355 on Monday, up 1.
35%
from the previous session.
Last Friday, there was news of production cuts in Yunnan, and aluminum prices were slightly lacking in upward momentum after a short period of strength
.
On the one hand, there is still uncertainty about Yunnan's production cuts, and on the other hand, Novelis, one of the world's largest aluminum buyers, said that its European factories will not buy Russian metals next year or have an emotional impact on the market, and Lun aluminum was significantly weaker than Shanghai aluminum
on Monday.
Looking forward to September, the aluminum market is still facing greater uncertainty, unilateral trends or more entangled, and it is expected to remain in a wide range
.
On the macro front, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, saying that despite the improvement in July data, reducing inflation to 2% remains the Fed's key goal and will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation
.
Defeated market expectations of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, with a higher
probability of a 50 basis point or 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed's September policy meeting.
The downward pressure on the economy will increase, the dollar will strengthen, and non-ferrous metal prices will come under pressure
.
On the supply side, the "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline has entered a three-day shutdown, while Ukraine has a strong attitude and refuses to use the "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipeline, and Gazprom's deliveries to French utility Engie have fallen sharply, but European natural gas reserves have progressed more than expected, and energy ministers will hold an emergency meeting on September 9 to discuss market intervention measures for natural gas and electricity.
The impact of power cuts in the domestic Sichuan-Chongqing region has eased this week, and electrolytic aluminum companies have slowly resumed production, but supply-side pressure still exists
.
On the demand side, after the power is alleviated, downstream factories will resume production quickly; The epidemic is scattered and managed in many places; The policy is favorable to real estate, and the upcoming "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is expected to drive demand recovery, but it will take time
for demand to recover.
In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign are low
.
In general, supply-side pressure still exists, demand recovery still takes time, and the macro is bearish
.
On the market, Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated downward this week
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the main AL2210 contract of Shanghai aluminum short-term short-term thinking, light positions and short positions, pay attention to risk control
.
