The market is cautious and deadlocked, and the main shock of Shanghai copper rose slightly

Market focus: (1) The number of ADP payrolls in the United States increased by 183,000 in February, better than expected an increase of 170,000, and the previous value was revised down sharply from an increase of 291,000 to an increase of 209,000
.
(2) The IMF expects global economic growth in 2020 to be lower than 2.
9% in 2019, after the IMF forecast 3.
3%
in January for 2020.
(3) Bank of America said that copper prices are expected to be $6,053/ton in 2020 and $6,250/ton
in 2021.

Spot analysis: On March 5, the price of 1# electrolytic copper was 45030-45070 yuan / ton, the average price was 45050 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 40 yuan / ton
.
At present, there is a divergence between market supply and demand, traders favor low-priced sources but difficult to suppress prices, good quality and low-priced flat water copper is favored by market buying, the transaction is still led by traders, following the previous day's individual traders concentrated on receiving goods, intraday trade activity and plate performance is more consistent, cautious and deadlocked
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 192107 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 7,109 tons; On March 4, LME copper stocks were 206575 tonnes, down 4,650 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2004 contract were 74891 lots, minus 793 lots per day, short positions were 92179 lots, daily minus 347 lots, net short positions were 17288 lots, a daily increase of 446 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.

During the day, the main force of Shanghai copper rose slightly in 2004
.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic continues to spread, and the market is worried that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy will further intensify; The IMF has cut the global economic growth rate this year again, saying that the spread of the epidemic has dashed hopes for stronger economic growth this year; At the same time, although downstream processing enterprises have resumed work one after another, the lack of employees and poor orders have led to a lack of improvement in downstream demand, Shanghai copper inventories continue to rise, and copper prices lack upward momentum
.
US ADP data for February showed that the labor market remained solid, the Federal Reserve urgently announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, and global monetary easing expectations strengthened; At the same time, China's epidemic is expected to end by April, which is conducive to accelerating the economic return to normal, and many provinces and municipalities have released a list of 34 trillion yuan of new infrastructure investment, and demand is expected to improve significantly in the long run
.
In terms of spot, there is currently a divergence between supply and demand in the market, traders prefer low-priced sources but are difficult to suppress prices, intraday trade activity is more consistent with the performance of the market, cautious and deadlocked
.
Technically, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai copper reduced its position, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term low.