The market has ups and downs, and the weak trend of Shanghai copper continues

News: On April 7, the United States launched a military strike on Syria, firing 59 Tomahawk missiles to attack Syria
.
The immediate trigger for the airstrikes was the Syrian government's use of chemical weapons against the opposition and civilians during last week's military operations, which Trump said the United States could not tolerate
.
The US air strike on Syria marks the beginning of the Trump team's Middle East policy, and the US Middle East strategy has officially turned
.

At the same time, according to the Russian Daily, the spokesman of the Russian Black Sea Fleet said that the Russian Black Sea Fleet frigate "Admiral Grigorovich", which set off for the Mediterranean region on April 7, has now been officially assigned to the Russian combat navy in Syria and is preparing to carry out military tasks
.
The United States and Russia are constantly engaged in geopolitical games in the Middle East, and military threats are constantly escalating
.
The demand for safe-haven assets is also increasing
.

Fundamental analysis: The first quarter is the traditional off-season of China's non-ferrous metal industry, especially after the wave of Shanghai copper rise, the willingness of spot enterprises to receive goods has decreased again.

Although the tight supply of copper mines in the early stage and the recovery of demand have made the spot discount situation improve to a certain extent
.
However, copper mine supply has gradually begun to return to normal, and copper has once again continued to discount, which has put some pressure
on copper prices.

From the past trend, most of the rise in copper futures needs to be matched with the reduction
of Hulun copper inventory.
As of April 7, London copper stocks were 265,000 tons, a significant increase from about 225,000 tons in February, and SHFE copper stocks were about 315,000 tons, far exceeding about 144,000 tons
in January-February.
After the spot stock rose rapidly from around 39,000 yuan / ton to more than 45,000 in November last year, spot traders still maintained a fear of heights for high-priced spots, while downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in a large backlog of copper inventories, forming resistance
to the rise in copper prices.

Future market outlook: After Trump took office, Trump's policies and implementation have become the biggest source of uncertainty in the market, and with the US bombing of Syria, whether geopolitical issues will continue to heat up for a period of time will remain high uncertainty
.
Recently, many real estate places in China have successively introduced purchase restriction policies, which has a certain negative impact on the fundamentals of non-ferrous metals, but with the concept of Xiong'an New Area, the construction of new areas makes people think of it, and will have a new supporting effect
on non-ferrous metals.
Recently, the 5/10/20/40 and 60-day moving averages are gradually approaching, both around 47000-48000 points
.
Without strong positive news stimulus, short-term Shanghai copper may continue the range shock market of 46,000-48,000 points
.