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Recently, the domestic PVC market atmosphere has improved, the export arbitrage window has opened again, the export order volume of major enterprises has increased significantly, the main delivery time is concentrated in September-October, and with the upcoming peak season, the expectation of further decline in inventory in September-October has increased
.
Since last week, the domestic PVC market has improved again, and the price has risen one after another, and the average price of SG-5 in East China has risen from 9040 yuan / ton on August 3 to about 9280 yuan / ton on August 12, a cumulative increase of 240 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.
65%.
During the same period, the futures V09 contract rose more than 500 yuan / ton
.
On the one hand, the rise in market prices is due to the fact that there are more pre-sales on the supply side, and the pressure is not large, on the other hand, due to the small inventory in East and South China, and the third is the shortage of raw calcium carbide and the cost remains high
.
However, these three supporting factors have existed for a long time in recent times, and it is difficult to support the price to rebound to near
the previous high.
The new change in fundamentals is that the number of export orders has increased again, injecting new impetus
into the market.
Speaking of export factors, the support for the market in the first half of the year is still vivid, according to customs data from January to June exports were 1.
102 million tons, an increase of 856,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 348%.
It is precisely due to the sharp increase in export volume that PVC social inventory fell rapidly in the second quarter, and the inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China has been about 50% lower than the same period of previous years since late May
.
Southeast Asia's recent buying intention is still not high, while the Indian market demand has increased significantly, the supply is abnormally scarce, in addition to South Korea, Japan and other places export sources are limited, so China's source of goods has become the first choice, and the Indian market demand is the strongest in the recent
Eastbound orders.