The market environment is optimistic Aluminum prices will show a high volatility trend

In terms of market, the alumina market is in a tight balance, and inventories are low, but because of the low profit of alumina production, companies are unwilling to increase the operating rate
.
With the continuous improvement of the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum, the price of alumina may have some room for rebound, but the range is limited, and the target price of the rebound is expected to be 2500 yuan / ton
.
In contrast, the production of electrolytic aluminum is particularly profitable
.
At present, based on the plate price, the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is 2100 yuan / ton, which will stimulate the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum
.
According to Baichuan information statistics, in May and June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity increased by a total of 337,000 tons, and about 1.
311 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is planned to resume production
this year.

In terms of inventory, inventories have continued to decline and have now reached a low level
.
While the downward trend in inventories has slowed down significantly, an inflection point for inventories has yet to appear
.
If the inventory is at a low level, then the soft position will be carried out with a high probability, and investors should pay close attention to the changes
in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum.

Domestic aluminum consumption demand is better, the high operating rate of aluminum profile factories can be maintained at least until the end of July, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and foil enterprises has declined
.
At present, the performance of downstream terminal demand has improved significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of automobiles, refrigerators and color TVs has turned from negative to positive
.
Due to the uncontrolled overseas epidemic, the demand for export orders has declined significantly, and it is expected that weak exports will continue
with a high probability.

At present
, the trend of Shanghai aluminum is still relatively strong.
Although because of high profits, a considerable part of the subsequent production capacity will be put into production, but the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still declining, but the downward trend has slowed down, and the production capacity does not seem to bring pressure
.
From the inventory speculation, soft pressing may still be carried out
.
In view of the current optimistic market environment and the subsequent pressure of production, aluminum prices are expected to show a trend of high volatility
.