The market enters the end of the off-season, and Shanghai aluminum is likely to go further higher

In July, domestic alumina production was 6.
1 million tons, down 2.
0% year-on-year and 3.
1%
month-on-month.
This year's domestic alumina production showed a slow upward trend, but the recovery was not significant, still lower than the same period
in 2019.
As of September 10, the national average price of alumina was 2321 yuan / ton, under this price, there is greater pressure
on alumina production.

Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July totaled 3.
096 million tons, an increase of 3.
1% year-on-year and 2.
7% month-on-month, and the output hit a record high
since 2016.
In August, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 37.
931 million tons, an increase of 6.
62% year-on-year and 1.
44% month-on-month, which speculated that electrolytic aluminum production will be further increased
in August.

Electrolytic aluminum social stocks totaled 736,000 tons on Thursday, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month, and last week's aluminum stocks fell by 2,000 tons to 249,000 tons
.
Whether it is social inventory or the inventory of the previous period, there are signs of turning upward, but as far as the current inventory level is concerned, the inventory pressure is not large
.
Supply increased while inventories remained virtually unchanged, indicating better
consumption.

At present, it has entered the end of the off-season, and the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has generally remained stable
.
The change in the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises is not obvious, the number of orders to be produced has decreased slightly, and the number of new orders is lower than expected
.
The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises has rebounded, while the operating rate of aluminum alloy processing enterprises and aluminum cable enterprises have declined
.

Because of high profits, the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, but the price pressure brought by the increase in supply is not significant, on the one hand, because the release of production capacity is lower than market expectations, on the other hand, because the downstream consumption performance is better, electrolytic aluminum inventory is always at a low level
.
At present, the traditional consumption season is coming, although the resumption of work is slow, but if electrolytic aluminum inventories can still maintain a low level, or even decline, then aluminum prices may further rise
.